Archiv für den Tag 22. Juni 2012
by ALI VAEZ
Tehran’s nuclear calculus has fluctuated significantly since negotiations between Iran and the world powers resumed in April. Iran first appeared eager for a deal that could check the damaging momentum of sanctions and avert a war. The run-up to the Istanbul meeting was marked by positive signs, ranging from Ayatollah Khamenei’s rare praise of President Obama’s defense of diplomacy and the reiteration of his nuclear fatwa, to Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi’s constructive commentary in the Washington Post indicating commitment to diplomacy, and the conciliatory remarks by Fereydoun Abbasi Davani, chief of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization, on halting high-level enrichment. At the same time, Iran’s confidence was bolstered by its recent advances in nuclear technology and the completion of the undergrounduranium enrichment facility at Fordow.In the wake of the Istanbul meeting, and despite its concentration on generalities, the mood in Tehran became Pollyannaish. The West’s renewed interest in diplomacy, based on a step-by-step reciprocal process, was interpreted as a sign of weakness — a desperate attempt to tame oil prices and avert a military confrontation ahead of the U.S. presidential election and amid an unprecedented economic crisis in Europe. Tehran consequently orchestrated a messaging campaign to up the ante in Baghdad by simultaneously demanding the removal of sanctions and conditioning the public for a compromise. Lies den Rest dieses Artikels
by PARVIN SHIRZAD
A psyche that doesn’t bow to bullying.
In Moscow, the Iranians didn’t give in, even as they faced the prospect of a military attack and supposed economic ruin via sanctions. The United States and its allies were hoping the “pressure” approach would work. It did not, and has not in more than 30 years. To understand why, one must understand the Iranian psyche. And not just that of the group of people who rule the country or those on the Supreme National Security Council, responsible for nuclear negotiations. One needs to understand the collective and complicated psyche of Iranians as a people. And yes, in this case, the government and its “defiant” attitude to the West reflects the will of its nation. Lies den Rest dieses Artikels
On June 20, the State Department hosted a conversation on U.S. foreign policy between Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton and former Secretary of State James Baker. The following are excerpts from the discussion, which was hosted by Charlie Rose.
CLINTON: One of the real successes of our diplomatic strategy toward Iran, which was to be willing to engage with them but to keep a very clear pressure track going, is that the Chinese and the Russians are part of a unified negotiating stance that we have presented to the Iranians, most recently in Moscow. I think the Iranians have been surprised. They have expended a certain amount of effort to try to break apart this so-called P-5+1, and they haven’t been successful. The Russians and the Chinese have been absolutely clear they don’t want to see Iran with a nuclear weapon. They have to see concrete steps taken by Iran that are in line with Iran’s international obligations. And we have said we’ll do action for action, but we have to see some willingness on the part of the Iranians to act first… It took three-plus years, because one of the efforts that we’ve been engaged in is to make the case that as difficult as it is to put these sanctions on Iran, and particularly to ask countries like China to decrease their crude oil purchases from Iran, the alternatives are much worse. And we’ve seen China slowly but surely take actions, along with some other countries for whom it was quite difficult — Japan, South Korea, India, et cetera. So on Iran, they are very much with us in the international arena. ROSE: Will they support an oil embargo? SECRETARY CLINTON: Well, absent some action by Iran between now and July 1st, the oil embargo is going into effect. And that’s been very clear from the beginning, that we were on this track. I have to certify under American laws whether or not countries are reducing their purchases of crude oil from Iran, and I was able to certify that India was, Japan was, South Korea was. And we think, based on the latest data, that China is also moving in that direction. And thankfully, there’s been enough supply in the market that countries have been able to change suppliers. BAKER: If we’re going to have differences with Russia — and we do have some differences with Russia — it seems to me the most important difference we might have is with respect to Iran. And we don’t have that now, and that’s really important. And I don’t think we ought to create a problem with Russia vis-à-vis what we want to do in Iran about their nuclear ambitions as a result of something we might do in Syria. I just think the Iranian issue there is far more important really than how we resolve the Syrian issue. ROSE: [On the Syrian crisis] Is there a role for Iran? CLINTON: At this point, it would be very difficult for Iran to be initially involved. I mean, I’m a big believer in talking to people when you can and trying to solve problems when you can. But right now, we’re focused on dealing with Iran and the nuclear portfolio. That has to be our focus. Iran’s always trying to get us to talk about anything else except their nuclear program. Lies den Rest dieses Artikels