Eye on Iran: Falling Oil Prices Put Iran over U.S. Sanctions Barrel

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Reuters: ”For most of this year, the threat of tough U.S. sanctions on Iran, the world’s third-largest oil exporter, helped push crude oil prices higher and higher, adding a menacing headwind for struggling global economies. But in the past few weeks, a combination of higher output from Iran’s rival Saudi Arabia and economic troubles in China and Europe have pushed oil prices down 25 percent, putting the threat of sanctions back squarely on Iran. As June 28 approaches – the day the law allows U.S. President Barack Obama to enforce sanctions on countries that do oil deals with Iran’s central bank – Washington is revving up efforts to tighten the squeeze on Tehran. Lawmakers in Congress hope to finalize in July a new package of sanctions aimed at further crippling Iran’s oil revenues after international talks in Moscow last week failed to convince Tehran to scale back its nuclear program.” 
http://t.uani.com/N1YkMa
 

West’s Demands, Iran’s Unrealistic Goals Sink Nuclear Talks

by MUHAMMAD SAHIMI

26 Jun 2012 01:080 Comments

An analysis of the failure in Moscow, and the framework for a solution.

Muhammad Sahimi, a professor at the University of Southern California, is a columnist for Tehran Bureau and contributes regularly to other Internet and print media.

The latest round of negotiations between Iran and the P5+1 group — the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council plus Germany — in Moscow was a failure. Nothing significant was achieved, except for an agreement to have a low-level “experts” group meet on July 3 in Istanbul. Catherine Ashton, the European Union foreign policy chief who heads the P5+1 negotiating team, did not even agree to a request by Saeed Jaili, Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator and secretary-general of the Supreme National Security Council, to meet again after the experts’ meeting. New E.U. sanctions are supposed to go into effect on July 1, which will surely worsen the economic plight of the Iranian people, but probably make no difference in the Islamic Republic’s defense of its nuclear program. Why did the negotiations, which began so promisingly in Istanbul on April 14, fail?As I had predicted, the negotiations failed mainly because the United States and its allies made demands that would have been practically impossible for any government to accept, let alone the Islamic Republic, which has not been willing to retreat from its stance regarding the nuclear program after nearly a decade of Western threats and sanctions. It seemd as if the United States is interested only in dragging out the negotiations until after the November presidential election, at which time either an Obama or Romney administration will have to decide what to do if Iran has not changed its position. In the following, I discuss those demands as well as other factors that contributed to the failure of the negotiations.

Roundup of Today’s International News 25/06/12

IRAN

IAEA Access To Iran Military Complex A Priority, Amano Says
Iran granting access to its military complex of Parchin remains a “matter of priority” for nuclear inspectors, International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Yukiya Amano said.

Iran Officials Assert Defiance of West in Aftermath of Nuclear Talks
Iranian politicians and military commanders said Wednesday that their country would never relinquish what they called its nuclear rights, a day after talks between Iran and world powers in Moscow failed to make substantive progress in the dispute over Iran’s uranium enrichment.

Insight: Iran talks – across the table, a wary stalemate
The talk can be blunt and the rhetoric can be flowery, with invocations of deity and Persian poetry. Sometimes, it has been suggested, there is the sense of a well-worn cast acting out a script.

Iran’s Nuclear Calculus

by ALI VAEZ

Mutual perceptions of weakness yield little progress.

Ali Vaez is the International Crisis Group’s senior Iran analyst. Before joining ICG, he headed the Iran project at the Federation of American Scientists in Washington, D.C., focusing on Iran’s nuclear and missile programs. Trained as a scientist, Vaez has more than a decade of experience in journalism, including as a foreign correspondent for Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty in Switzerland.

Tehran’s nuclear calculus has fluctuated significantly since negotiations between Iran and the world powers resumed in April. Iran first appeared eager for a deal that could check the damaging momentum of sanctions and avert a war. The run-up to the Istanbul meeting was marked by positive signs, ranging from Ayatollah Khamenei’s rare praise of President Obama’s defense of diplomacy and the reiteration of his nuclear fatwa, to Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi’s constructive commentary in the Washington Post indicating commitment to diplomacy, and the conciliatory remarks by Fereydoun Abbasi Davani, chief of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization, on halting high-level enrichment. At the same time, Iran’s confidence was bolstered by its recent advances in nuclear technology and the completion of the undergrounduranium enrichment facility at Fordow.In the wake of the Istanbul meeting, and despite its concentration on generalities, the mood in Tehran became Pollyannaish. The West’s renewed interest in diplomacy, based on a step-by-step reciprocal process, was interpreted as a sign of weakness — a desperate attempt to tame oil prices and avert a military confrontation ahead of the U.S. presidential election and amid an unprecedented economic crisis in Europe. Tehran consequently orchestrated a messaging campaign to up the ante in Baghdad by simultaneously demanding the removal of sanctions and conditioning the public for a compromise.

Understanding Iranian Defiance

by PARVIN SHIRZAD

A psyche that doesn’t bow to bullying.

Parvin Shirzad is a pen name for a journalist who travels frequently to Iran. She was recently based in Tehran for a year.

There is a fundamental reason why Iran does not want to give in to foreign demands regarding its nuclear program: it doesn’t have to. This is a fact that the P5+1′s nuclear delegation would have done well to remember during the Moscow talks. Unsurprisingly, the talks failed to reach a breakthrough. The next step is back to lower-level technical discussions, with the hope they lead to new proposals and higher-level talks once again.

In Moscow, the Iranians didn’t give in, even as they faced the prospect of a military attack and supposed economic ruin via sanctions. The United States and its allies were hoping the “pressure” approach would work. It did not, and has not in more than 30 years. To understand why, one must understand the Iranian psyche. And not just that of the group of people who rule the country or those on the Supreme National Security Council, responsible for nuclear negotiations. One needs to understand the collective and complicated psyche of Iranians as a people. And yes, in this case, the government and its “defiant” attitude to the West reflects the will of its nation.

Clinton: Regime Change For Iranians to Decide

On June 20, the State Department hosted a conversation on U.S. foreign policy between Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton and former Secretary of State James Baker. The following are excerpts from the discussion, which was hosted by Charlie Rose.

***

CLINTON: One of the real successes of our diplomatic strategy toward Iran, which was to be willing to engage with them but to keep a very clear pressure track going, is that the Chinese and the Russians are part of a unified negotiating stance that we have presented to the Iranians, most recently in Moscow. I think the Iranians have been surprised. They have expended a certain amount of effort to try to break apart this so-called P-5+1, and they haven’t been successful. The Russians and the Chinese have been absolutely clear they don’t want to see Iran with a nuclear weapon. They have to see concrete steps taken by Iran that are in line with Iran’s international obligations. And we have said we’ll do action for action, but we have to see some willingness on the part of the Iranians to act first… It took three-plus years, because one of the efforts that we’ve been engaged in is to make the case that as difficult as it is to put these sanctions on Iran, and particularly to ask countries like China to decrease their crude oil purchases from Iran, the alternatives are much worse. And we’ve seen China slowly but surely take actions, along with some other countries for whom it was quite difficult — Japan, South Korea, India, et cetera. So on Iran, they are very much with us in the international arena. ROSE: Will they support an oil embargo? SECRETARY CLINTON: Well, absent some action by Iran between now and July 1st, the oil embargo is going into effect. And that’s been very clear from the beginning, that we were on this track. I have to certify under American laws whether or not countries are reducing their purchases of crude oil from Iran, and I was able to certify that India was, Japan was, South Korea was. And we think, based on the latest data, that China is also moving in that direction. And thankfully, there’s been enough supply in the market that countries have been able to change suppliers. BAKER: If we’re going to have differences with Russia — and we do have some differences with Russia — it seems to me the most important difference we might have is with respect to Iran. And we don’t have that now, and that’s really important. And I don’t think we ought to create a problem with Russia vis-à-vis what we want to do in Iran about their nuclear ambitions as a result of something we might do in Syria. I just think the Iranian issue there is far more important really than how we resolve the Syrian issue. ROSE: [On the Syrian crisis] Is there a role for Iran? CLINTON: At this point, it would be very difficult for Iran to be initially involved. I mean, I’m a big believer in talking to people when you can and trying to solve problems when you can. But right now, we’re focused on dealing with Iran and the nuclear portfolio. That has to be our focus. Iran’s always trying to get us to talk about anything else except their nuclear program.

Eye on Iran: Iran Oil Exports Fall More in June, Sanctions Bite

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Reuters: ”Iranian oil exports are falling further in June as more customers in Europe and Asia stop or scale back purchases ahead of European Union sanctions aimed at slowing Tehran’s nuclear program. Crude exports from Iran so far this month have dropped to between 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) and 1.3 million bpd, according to a firm that tracks oil shipments and sources at oil companies. The latest decline, if confirmed, indicates Iran may have lost as much as 1 million bpd of oil exports – worth around $90 million a day – due to the threat of an EU ban starting July 1 which also bars EU insurance firms from covering Iran’s exports… Iran’s crude shipments in May were between 1.5 million bpd and 1.6 million bpd, according to the same sources, who declined to be identified by name because they are not authorized to speak to the media… Last year, Iranian crude exports were running at about 2 million-2.2 million bpd with total production, including domestic consumption, at 3.5 million-3.6 million bpd.”
http://t.uani.com/PwOo1f
 

Round up of Today’s International News 21/06/12

NUCLEAR TALKS

Iran nuclear talks downgraded
High-level negotiations between Iran and six world powers were suspended after two days of talks in Moscow failed to bridge differences over the future of Iran’s nuclear programme. Contacts will now be downgraded to the level of experts from each country and bureaucrats from Brussels and Tehran. However, it was unclear how such technical discussion could help heal a substantial political rift.

Iran attacks world powers’ ‘dishonesty’
Iran’s leaders have lashed out at the West, accusing it of “enmity” and “bullying” policies toward their nation after recent nuclear talks with world powers in Moscow ended without progress, according to Iranian media reports Thursday.

Iran nuclear negotiator wants new political talks
Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator said on Tuesday he hoped a new round of diplomacy would soon be agreed with world powers after talks that failed to resolve their differences over Tehran’s atomic programme in Moscow.

Expert meetings with 5+1 meant to bridge ‘large’ gap in views: Iranian Negotiator

Source: Mehr News Agency, Tehran

Saeed Jalili, the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, has said that any wrong measure by the six major powers will negatively affect future talks over the country’s nuclear program.

Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Saeed Jalili

SNSC secretary general made the remarks at a press conference in Moscow on late Tuesday after two days of talks between Tehran and the 5+1 group (the five permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany) when asked if the group had agreed to help lift the sanctions imposed on Iran.

The negotiations in Moscow were a continuation of talks that were held in Istanbul on April 14 and in Baghdad on May 23 and 24.

EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton represented world powers in the talks and Jalili led the Iranian delegation.

During the talks in Moscow, the two sides agreed to hold expert meetings in Istanbul on July 3.

Quotes from Iran nuclear talks June 18-19

The world’s six major powers held talks with Iran in Moscow on June 18 and 19. The following are comments from key parties to the talks.

Six Major Powers

European Union foreign policy chief Lady Catherine Ashton

We set out our respective positions in what were detailed, tough and frank exchanges. After give plenary sessions and several bilateral meetings we have begun to tackle critical issues. However, it remains clear that there are significant gaps between the substance of the two positions. We have therefore agreed as follow:

• An early follow-on technical-level meeting in Istanbul on 3 July to provide further clarification about the E3+3 proposal; increase the E3+3 understanding of the Iranian response; and study the issues raised by Iran during the sessions;
• This will be followed by contact at the deputy-level between Ms. Schmid and Dr. Bagheri;
• I will then be directly in touch with Dr. Jalili about prospects for a future meeting at the political level.

The choice is Iran’s. We expect Iran to decide whether it is willing to make diplomacy work, to focus on reaching agreement on concrete confidence-building steps, and to address the concerns of the international community.

EU Foreign Policy spokesman Michael Mann

“Sanctions policy by definition is always under review, but can only be eased in response to real changes on the ground, so there is no question that our sanctions will come into force on the first of July.”

Iran says any wrong move by West to affect result of talks

Source: ISNA

The Secretary of Supreme National Security Council Saeed Jalili said Tuesday any wrong movement by western countries would affect the result of talks.

Saeed Jalili

Iran’s top negotiator expressed hope after two days of talks in Moscow that members of P5+1 change their previous approach and take steps in cooperation with Iran.

Jalili added Iran has already announced after Baghdad talks that holding meeting among experts would lead to success in further talks and by writing different letters took steps in this regard.

He stressed that during Moscow talks it was agreed that expert-level meeting would be held after negotiations.

Jalili referred to first round of Moscow talks, saying this round of talks were held more seriously and real, during which Iran offered suggestions and stressed the enrichment right of the country.

“Based on legal documents we proved that many actions carried out against Iran are illegal and we clearly explained why the UN resolution is not legal, “he stressed.

Iran nuclear negotiations set to continue in Turkey

Source: Radio Zamaneh

Nuclear negotiations between Iran and the world powers came to an end in Moscow with no breakthroughs, except for a tense agreement to meet again next month in Turkey.

The Iranian negotiating delegation was led by Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Saeed Jalili (right), and the P5+1 group was headed by EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton.

Catherine Ashton, the EU foreign policy chief, announced after talks ceased that both sides had agreed to supply further clarifications at the next meeting in Istanbul, as well as technical studies of each other’s position, which will be prepared by Ashton’s deputy and the deputy to Saeed Jalili, Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator.

Ashton said: “We have begun to tackle the critical issues; however, it remains clear there are significant gaps between the substance of the two positions.”

Eye on Iran: Setback in Talks on Iran’s Nuclear Program in a ‘Gulf of Mistrust’

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NYT: ”Talks on Iran’s disputed nuclear program descended into mistrust and frustration in Moscow on Tuesday, casting doubt on whether the two sides can negotiate a way out of the escalating crisis. After five draining sessions, the European Union foreign policy chief, Catherine Ashton, said the differences between Iran and the group of six world powers involved in the talks here remained so significant that negotiators did not commit to another high-level meeting. Instead, technical experts from both sides will convene early next month to determine whether there are grounds for further high-level contact. The talks between Iran and the six powers – Britain, China, France, Russia, the United States and Germany – faced daunting obstacles from the outset. Iran has signaled some willingness to scale down its uranium enrichment, a process that can produce nuclear fuel but also the components of a nuclear bomb, and is being squeezed by new rounds of economic sanctions that will take effect on July 1. The sanctions threaten to isolate Tehran further from world oil markets and the international banking system.”
http://t.uani.com/LDoAgK
 

Iran Nuclear Talks Fail: AEI Critical Threats Quick Take by Maseh Zarif

The threat of Iran’s illicit nuclear program is mounting as another round of meetings between the P5+1 and Iran ended in failure this week. Tehran’s continued intransigence suggests that the regime will not compromise on its pursuit of a nuclear weapons capability, despite the impact of recent economic sanctions.

Iran’s ongoing enrichment activities at the Natanz and Fordow facilities are increasing its enriched uranium stockpile, which is now large enough to produce fuel for five nuclear weapons after conversion to weapons-grade, and reducing the time it would need to produce bomb-grade fuel. Iran would need one month to produce 25 kilograms weapons-grade uranium at the larger Natanz enrichment facility (using its 3.5% and 20% enriched uranium stockpiles) and approximately eight months total to produce 25 kilograms weapons-grade at the smaller, buried Fordow enrichment facility (using its 20% enriched uranium stockpile). Iran has already produced enough 20% enriched uranium with which to produce the 15 kilograms of weapons-grade uranium needed to fuel a warhead designed with a high level of technical capability in 2-8 weeks. For technical notes and further information on these estimates, see “The Iranian Nuclear Program: Timelines, Data, and Estimates.”

There is no indication that Iran is prepared to verifiably dismantle its nuclear program (including ending uranium enrichment and heavy water related activities), remove nuclear material from Iran, adhere to the IAEA’s Additional Protocol, or cooperate with the IAEA’s ongoing inquiry into Iran’s weaponization work. Iranian negotiators have continued to invoke the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT)–a treaty they are in standing violation of–as the basis for their supposed “right” to enrichment; the NPT does not, in fact, bestow any right to enrichment. Even the limited, short-term proposal put forth by the P5+1 aimed at curbing Iran’s 20% enriched uranium production–which would have limited impact on Iran’s ability to quickly produce weapons-grade fuel and fails to address the broader threat posed by the nuclear program–was dismissed in Moscow by Iran’s negotiator Saeed Jalili.

Source: American Enterprise Institute

Iran Demands Relief from Sanctions; West: ‘Stop, Shut, Ship’

by MUHAMMAD SAHIMI

Press Roundup provides a selected summary of news from the Farsi and Arabic press and excerpts where the source is in English. 

11:30 p.m. IRDT, 30 Khordad/June 19 The second day of nuclear negotiations between Iran and the P5+1 group — the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) plus Germany – came to an end in Moscow.Tabnak, a website that is close to Mohsen Rezaei, former chief of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps and current Secretary of the Expediency Discernment Council, has revealed the details of Iran’s counter proposal to the P5+1. During the Baghdad negotiations, the P5+1 complained that Iran’s proposed package was vague. (The Telegraph of London reported this more or less along the same lines.) According to Tabnak, this time around, Saeed Jalili, Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator, provided precise details of the proposal. According to Tabnak, using a power-point presentation, Jalili offered the following as the main pillars of Iran’s proposal: 

Arseh Sevom weekly: #RememberIran, Labor Activists Arrested, House of Cinema, Death of a Maestro

Green Movement: Three Years On

This week marked the third anniversary of the demonstrations following Iran’s flawed 2009 presidential elections, which brought the Green Movement to the world stage. In 2009, millions of Iranian citizens took to the streets of Tehran and other major Iranian cities to protest what they saw as a rigged election. Many had a simple question to ask through their peaceful demonstrations, “Where is my vote?” The rest is history.

The Islamic Republic crushed the protests with mass arrests and violence. Several lost their lives in the process. The families of those killed during the protests are now struggling to achieve justice.

The anniversary was commemorated in many countries around the world. United4Iran released an online compilation of music from various musicians, entitled Azadi: Songs of Freedom. It can be listened to for free here.

Iran Analysis: The Nuclear Talks — The West Looks for an Iranian Crash

Throughout this spring’s nuclear talks between Iran and the 5+1 Powers (US, Britain, Germany, France, Russia, China), I have used the metaphor of the game of “chicken”, in which two drivers aim their cars at each other and accelerate. The question, from Istanbul in April to Baghdad in May to Moscow this week, has been whether one or both sides would swerve to get an agreement on Tehran’s uranium enrichment or whether both were preparing for impact.

The past 48 hours, for all the muddle during the third round of negotiations, gave us an answer.

The Iranians, after taking an unsuccesfully vague line in Baghdad, were ready to hit the brakes. The US and Europe are not — if Iran will not give way, it should brace itself for the crash.

Eye on Iran: Frustration Mounts at Deadlock in Iran Nuclear Talks

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Reuters: ”Iran and world powers blamed each other on Tuesday for the lack of progress in talks on Tehran’s nuclear program, which has dimmed hopes of a breakthrough to avert the threat of a new Middle East war. On the second and final day of talks in Moscow, frustration mounted over the failure to move any closer to ending a decade of negotiations over Iranian work which the United States and its allies fear is designed for building nuclear weapons. If talks collapse, nerves could grow on financial markets over the danger of higher oil prices and conflict in the Middle East because Israel has threatened to bomb Iranian nuclear sites if diplomacy fails to stop Tehran getting the bomb. ‘We did not come to Moscow only for discussions. We came to Moscow for a resolution. But we believe the opposite side is not ready to reach a resolution,’ an Iranian diplomat said… A Western diplomat made clear late on Monday Iran needed to do more to address proposals made by the six powers at the last round of talks. ‘Our key requirements are: stop, shut and ship,’ said the Western diplomat, who was present at the talks. He was referring to demands for Iran to stop producing higher-grade uranium, ship any stockpile out of the country and close down an underground enrichment facility, Fordow.” 
http://t.uani.com/LBJGw0
 

Iran Audio Analysis: The Moscow Nuclear Talks — Scott Lucas with Monocle 24

EU’s Catherine Ashton & Iran’s Saeed JaliliLast night I spent more than 10 minutes with Monocle 24, setting out the issues at the nuclear talks between Iran and the 5+1 Powers (US, Britain, France, Germany, Russia, and China) and assessing the day’s developments.

The conclusion? Despite my pessimism before the talks and throughout the day over the discussions, there may be an opening for negotiations with Iran’s five-point proposal on uranium enrichment and eased sanctions — provided the US and Europe want an agreement short of a capitulation by Tehran, provided the details back up the general outline of the proposal, and provided the talks are not diverted by issues like intervention in Syria.

All big ifs…..

The discussion starts at the 17:53 mark.

Iran: Talks ‘Test for the West’; West: No Explicit Right to Enrichment

by MUHAMMAD SAHIMI

Press Roundup provides a selected summary of news from the Farsi and Arabic press and excerpts where the source is in English. 

5 p.m. IRDT, 29 Khordad/June 18 The new round of negotiations between Iran and the P5+1 group — the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council plus Germany — began in Moscow at 2:30 a.m. Eastern Standard Time, and lasted about two hours. The P5+1 has been pressing Iran to immediately suspend uranium enrichment at 19.75 percent, ship out its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, and shut down the Fordow facility near Qom.Iran has been pushing for the suspension of at least some of the sanctions imposed by the European countries and for P5+1 recognition of Iran’s right to enrich uranium. “These negotiations are a great test for the West, as to whether they can tolerate Iran’s progress,” Mehr News Agency, which is owned by the Organization for Islamic Propaganda, quoted Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator, Saeed Jalili, as saying just before entering the talks.

First Day of Iran Nuclear Negotiations in Moscow: ‘Not Positive’

by MUHAMMAD SAHIMI

Press Roundup provides a selected summary of news from the Farsi and Arabic press and excerpts where the source is in English. 

7:35 a.m. IRDT, 30 Khordad/June 19 The first day of nuclear negotiations between Iran and the P5+1 group — the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council plus Germany — ended on Monday evening in Moscow. According to IRNA, Iran’s state news agency, “Just like the previous rounds of talks in Turkey and Iraq, the participating delegations were involved in bilateral talks between the morning and afternoon” formal negotiation sessions. The Russian Foreign Ministry said that the first round of talks between Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator, Saeed Jalili, and European Union foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton, who leads the P5+1 negotiation team, took about half an hour. The reporters had been provided with video-conferencing access to the meeting, but after a while the feed was cut off.After the formal talks ended, Jalili also met with Nikolai Patrushev, head of Russia’s National Security Council and former chief of the FSB, the successor to the KGB. Little was reported on what the two men discussed. But Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, who heads the Russian delegation, told reporters, “The difficulty here is not only quite a distance between the positions but also the sequencing. What comes first, what comes next, what this reciprocity means. It’s very complex. The logic of the negotiations is extremely complicated.”

Iran will seek three-step strategy in Moscow talks: Envoy

Source: Press TV

Iran says it will seek a three-step strategy in the ongoing round of talks with the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany (P5+1) in Moscow.

The Iranian negotiating delegation is led by Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Saeed Jalili (right), and the P5+1 group is headed by EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton.

A member of the Iranian negotiating delegation, speaking on condition of anonymity, said on Monday that during the first phase of the Moscow talks, the Iranian delegation will criticize the other party for squandering chances after the negotiations in Baghdad and refusing to hold deputy-level talks. He said the P5+1 has thus dealt a blow to the talks in Moscow.

The Iranian diplomat said Tehran will also give clear and well-documented responses based on the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).

The Latest from Iran (18 June): The Nuclear Talks in Moscow

2046 GMT: Nuclear Watch. Julian Borger of The Guardian reveals both the Iranian PowerPoint presentation rejecting the 5+1 proposal of “stop, shut, and ship” 20% enriched uranium and Tehran’s five-point plan:

 

1) The right to enrich uranium, coupled with the ‘operationalisation’ of the Supreme Leader’s fatwa against nuclear weapons. [Lead Iranian negotiator Saeed] Jalili suggested this could be done in the form of a UN document, in which Iran promised not to pursue weapons in return for continuing to enrich; 

2) Relief from sanctions in return for cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency;

3) Nuclear cooperation in the fields of civilian nuclear energy production and nuclear safety;

4) Confidence-building measures, possibly involving limits on production of 20% uranium;

5) Non-nuclear issues like cooperation on counter-narcotics plus regional matters like Syria and Bahrain.

 

2036 GMT: Parliament v. President. One note of compromise amid the political tensions — Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani and President Ahmadinejad have agreed on adding 3000 Toman (about $2.40 at offical rate) to monthly support payments to pay increased bread prices caused by subsidy cuts.

Iran News Round Up (June 18)

Iran holds nuclear talks with G5+1 Group in Moscow; Iranian nuclear negotiators pessimistic on talks, reject more talks on 20% uranium enrichment in Moscow talks; Ahmadinejad says no plan to establish political party in future

Politics Ahmadinejad says he does not intend to organize a political party after he finishes his second tenure in office. A place visited by Supreme Leader Khamenei in Kurdistan develops into a shrine [Ghadamgah]. Military and Security The Basij praises the Intelligence Ministry for arresting the perpetrators behind the assassinations of nuclear scientists in Iran. Mohammad-Hossein Saffar Harandi, cultural adviser to the Revolutionary Guards commander, indirectly criticizes Ahmadinejad: “He plays all sorts of games not to follow the orders of the Guardian Jurist, and… he deceptively and instrumentally uses the Imams and the Imam of the Era and says: ‘When we have the Imam of the Era himself, we do not need his deputy!’” Jazayeri, General Staff cultural and defense propaganda commander, says the General Staff will file a complaint against parliamentarian Ali Mottahari, who has publicly accused the Revolutionary Guards of intervening in the latest parliamentary elections. The Student Basij Organization interview of Quds Force commander QassemSuleimani in 20016, in which he discusses the United States presence in Iraq.

The Latest from Iran (19 April): Supreme Leader Seeing “Positive” Nuclear Talks?

0600 GMT: We start on the nuclear front and a notable piece of public relations by the Supreme Leader’s chief foreign policy advisor, former Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Velayati.

We might be sceptical at EA about the prospects for a breakthrough in the talks — see our analyses this week about the low chance of Iran succeeding with the demand of an initial reduction in sanctions and the attempt to split Europe from the US — but Velayati wasupbeat in comments to State media:

This was a positive step by the 5+1 group, and they finally returned to the negotiation table after many months and, in effect, they have reached the conclusion that the Islamic Republic will not accept the language of threats. The Islamic Republic has said on many occasions that when they give up threats and prepare for talks, it is ready to negotiate with them in the framework of international regulations and its given rights.

Velayati said the 5+1 Powers (US, Britain, France, Germany, China, and Russia) had for the first time acknowledged Iran’s has the right to exploit nuclear energy for peaceful purposes.

Ahh, but here’s the issue of substance rather than spin. The US and Europeans have always acknowledged Iran’s “right” to work with uranium up to 3.5%. What they have not done, and thus the issue of the talks, is accept Iran’s enrichment to 20%, claiming this could be a platform for further enrichment and thus militarisation of the programme.

So are there “positive” numbers to back up the claimed optimism of the Supreme Leader’s camp?