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Bloomberg: South Korea Reduces Crude Imports From Iran by Half in April
South Korea, the world’s fifth-largest oil importer, cut crude shipments from Iran by 51 percent in April from a year earlier, customs data show.
Purchases last month were 507,821 metric tons, compared with 1.04 million tons a year earlier, according to data on the Korea Customs Service’s website today. The volume was 556,658 tons in March, the figures showed. The April deliveries were equivalent to about 124,000 barrels a day.
South Korea halted imports of Iranian crude in August and September after the start of a European Union ban on insurance coverage for tankers carrying oil from the Persian Gulf nation. The injunction was a part of sanctions by Western countries intended to pressure the Islamic republic to stop its nuclear program, which the U.S. and Israel say is aimed at developing atomic weapons and Iran says is for civilian purposes.
South Korea resumed crude shipments from Iran in October after the Persian Gulf nation offered its own vessels for transporting the commodity.
The Asian nation’s total crude imports fell 5 percent to 9.34 million tons last month from a year earlier, the customs data show.
Source: Bloomberg
Part II: What Would it Take to Build a Bomb?
Interview with Colin Kahl by Garrett Nada
What steps would be necessary for Iran to build a nuclear weapon?
President Obama has estimated that it would take Iran “over a year or so” for Iran to develop a nuclear weapon. But that device would likely be crude and too large to fit on a ballistic missile. Producing a nuclear weapon that could be launched at Israel, Europe, or the United States would take substantially longer. Iran would need to complete three key steps.
Step 1: Produce Fissile Material
Fissile material is the most important component of a nuclear weapon. There are two types of fissile material: weapons-grade uranium and plutonium. Tehran has worked primarily on uranium. There are three levels or enrichment to understand the controversy surrounding Iran’s program:
·90 percent enrichment: The most likely route for Iran to produce fissile material would be to enrich its growing stockpile of low-enriched uranium to 90 percent purity —or weapons-grade level. Western intelligence agencies suggest Iran has not decided to enrich uranium to 90 percent.
·3.5 percent enrichment: As of early 2013, Iran had approximately 18,000 pounds of “low-enriched uranium” enriched to the 3.5 percent level (the level used to fuel civilian nuclear power plants). This stockpile would be sufficient to produce up to seven nuclear bombs, but only if it were further enriched to weapons-grade level (above the 90 percent purity level). Experts estimate Iran would need at least four months to produce enough weapons-grade uranium for one bomb using 3.5 percent enriched uranium as the starting point.
·20 percent enrichment: In early 2013, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the
U.N. watchdog group that inspects Iranian nuclear facilities, said Iran also had a stockpile of
375 pounds of 20 percent low-enriched uranium, ostensibly to provide fuel for a medical
research reactor. This stockpile is about two-thirds of the 551 pounds needed to produce one
bomb’s worth of weapons-grade material if further enriched. If Iran accumulated sufficient
quantities of 20 percent low-enriched uranium, it might be able to enrich enough
weapons-grade uranium for a single bomb in a month or two.
The main issue is the status of the uranium enriched to 20 percent and the two production sites—at the Fordo plant outside the northern city of Qom and the Natanz facility in central Iran. U.N. inspectors visit these sites every week or two, however, so any move to produce weapons-grade uranium in an accelerated timeframe as short as a month would be detected. Knowing this, Iran is unlikely to act.
The speed of enrichment also depends on the centrifuges used, both their number and their quality. For a long time, Iran had used thousands of fairly slow IR-1 centrifuges to spin and then separate uranium isotopes. But since January 2013, it has started to install IR-2M centrifuges, which spin three to five times faster. In early 2013, Tehran claimed to be using about 200 IR-2Ms at the Natanz site.
Tehran might be able to enrich enough uranium for one bomb ― from 20 percent purity to 90 percent ― in as little as two weeks if it installs large numbers of advanced IR-2M centrifuges. Iran has announced its intention to eventually install as many as 3,000.
Step 2: Develop a Warhead
Iran would next have to build a nuclear device. It would need to build a warhead based on an “implosion” design if Iran wanted to deliver a nuclear device on a missile. It would include a core composed of weapons-grade uranium (or plutonium) and a neutron initiator surrounded by conventional high explosives designed to compress the core and set off a self-sustaining nuclear chain reaction.
IAEA documents claim, “Iran has sufficient information to be able to design and produce a workable implosion nuclear device based upon HEU [highly enriched uranium] as the fission fuel.” The IAEA has also expressed concerns that Iran may have conducted conventional high-explosive tests at its military facility at Parchin that could be used to develop a nuclear warhead.
There is no evidence, however, that Iran is currently working to design or construct such a warhead. Even if Iran made the decision, production of a warhead small enough, light enough, and reliable enough to mount on a ballistic missile is complicated. Iran would probably need at least a few years to accomplish this technological achievement.
Step 3: Marry the Warhead to an Effective Delivery System
If Iran built a nuclear warhead, it would need a way to deliver it. Tehran’s medium-range Shahab-3 has a range of up to 1,200 miles, long enough to strike anywhere in the Middle East, including Israel, and possibly southeastern Europe. These missiles are highly inaccurate, but they are theoretically capable of carrying a nuclear warhead if Iran is able to design one.
Iran’s Sajjil-2, another domestically produced medium-range ballistic missile, reportedly has a range of 1,375 miles when carrying a 1,650-pound warhead. Tehran is the only country to develop a missile with that range before a nuclear weapon. But the missile has only been tested once since 2009, which may mean it needs further fine-tuning before deployment. Iran also relies on foreign sources for a number of components for the Sajjil-2.
Iran is probably years away from developing a missile that could hit the United States. A 2012 Department of Defense report said Iran “may be technically capable” of flight testing an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) by 2015 if it receives foreign assistance. But in December 2012, a congressional report said Iran is unlikely to develop an ICBM in this timeframe, and many analysts estimate that Tehran would need until 2020.
Is the North Korean experience relevant?
The Clinton administration confronted a similar dilemma in 1993 on North Korea’s nuclear program. The intelligence community assessed that Pyongyang had one or two bombs’ worth of weapons-grade plutonium. But the intelligence community could not tell the president with a high degree of certainty if North Korea had actually built operational nuclear weapons.
The mere existence of a few bombs’ worth of weapons-grade plutonium seemed to have a powerful deterrent effect on the United States. Washington could not be sure where the material was stored, or if the North Koreans were close to producing a weapon.
The same concerns could apply to Iran if it developed the capability to produce weapons-grade uranium so quickly that it avoids detection even at declared facilities― or if it was able to enrich bomb-grade material at a secret facility. Then Iran might be able to hide the fissile material, making it more difficult for a military strike to destroy. All the other parts of the program, such as weapons design, preparing the uranium core, and fabrication and assembly of other key weapon components, could potentially be done in places dispersed across the country that are easier to conceal and more difficult to target.
Iran may be years away from being able to place a nuclear warhead on a reliable long-range missile. But many analysts are concerned that the game is up once Iran produces enough fissile material for a bomb.
Colin H. Kahl served as the deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East from 2009 to 2011. He is currently an associate professor at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service and a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security.
Source: USIP
ORF: „Du sollst deinen Nächsten lieben“|ORF2 Reportage, HEUTE,22.30 Uhr im „Weltjournal“
Im Süden Teherans leben keine reichen Leute. Die sind nur im Norden der iranischen Hauptstadt zu finden. Wer hier lebt und arbeitet, dem bleibt nichts übrig, als sich Tag für Tag durchzukämpfen, bei rasant steigenden Preisen. Wer Medikamente braucht oder einen guten Arzt, findet an einer ungewöhnlichen Adresse Hilfe: im jüdischen Krankenhaus unweit des Großen Basars.
„Du Sollst Deinen Nächsten lieben wie Dich selbst“, steht auf Hebräisch und auf Persisch über dem Eingang des Krankenhauses geschrieben. June Hamamis Ambulanz im Erdgeschoß wird jeden Vormittag von Patienten belagert. Denn er gilt als einer der besten Ärzte der Stadt. Hamami ist Jude, seine Patienten so gut wie ausschließlich Muslime. Menschen, die sich niemals ein Privatspital leisten könnten, bekommen hier gratis eine gleichwertige Behandlung.
ORFDr. Hamami: Mittlerweile kommt auch die Teheraner Mittelschicht zu ihmWeil das jüdische Krankenhaus auf private Spenden angewiesen ist und die Kosten steigen, müssen Hamami und seine Kolleginnen oft monatelang auf ihr Gehalt warten. „Patienten, die schon länger herkommen, wissen natürlich, dass ich Jude bin. Aber das stört sie nicht. Im Gegenteil. Manche sagen, sie hätten gehört, dass jüdische Ärzte hier einen guten Ruf haben“, erzählt Hamami.
Immer mehr Patienten aus der Mittelschicht
Seit neuestem mischen sich unter die Armen auch immer mehr Patienten aus der Mittelschicht. Hier zahlen sie weit weniger als anderswo. Würde Hamami in einem Privatspital nicht viel mehr verdienen? „Ja, das Drei- oder Vierfache“, sagt er: „Ich habe als junger Arzt hier vor 20 Jahren angefangen und ich will auch weiterhin hier in diesem wohltätigen Krankenhaus arbeiten.“
Mehrmals im Jahr lässt die iranische Führung gegen den jüdischen Staat aufmarschieren. „Nieder mit Israel und Tod dem Zionismus!“, lauten dann die Parolen. Gegen iranische Juden wie Hamami werden allerdings keine Parolen gerufen. Sie sollen im Land bleiben und nicht nach Israel auswandern. Das war einst der Wunsch des Revolutionsführers Ruhollah Chomeini, und der ist seinen Anhängern bis heute heilig.
Nischen für Nicht-Muslime
Und doch blieben für Nicht-Muslime nur einige wenige Nischen übrig, vor allem im Kleinhandel. Wer eine gute Ausbildung vorweisen konnte oder genügend Startkapital hatte, der versuchte sich nach der Revolution anderswo ein neues Leben aufzubauen. Lies den Rest dieses Artikels
Cyrus Connects Ancient Iran and U.S. Democracy
Garrett Nada
The 2,600-year-old Cyrus Cylinder, widely considered the world’s first human rights charter, is now on display in Washington, D.C. ― the first stop on its tour of five U.S. museums. The U.S. founding fathers were inspired by the Persian monarch Cyrus’ tolerant rule of the first multilingual empire, which spanned from Egypt to India. “The story of Persia — Iran — is part of the story of modern United States,” according to British Museum Director Neil MacGregor.
The nine-inch long clay artifact was unearthed in 1879 by a British Museum team in modern Iraq. It features an account of Cyrus’ conquest of Babylon in 539 B.C. But the cylinder is better known for the king’s proclamation of linguistic, racial and religious equality – a revolutionary concept in the ancient world. Cyrus also allowed slaves and deported peoples to return home to rebuild their temples. Lies den Rest dieses Artikels Welt: Schmuggel deutscher Waffen in den Iran nimmt zu
Das Zollkriminalamt ist alarmiert über den Anstieg illegaler Rüstungslieferungen aus Deutschland. Besonders Irans Regime verfolge “aggressive Beschaffungsbemühungen” – auch mit Blick auf Atomwaffen.
Foto: picture alliance / dpaWaffenschmuggel in Krisenländer ist ein wachsendes Problem. Hier sind pakistanische Polizisten nach der Aushebung eines Verstecks mit Gewehren zu sehen
Der Rüstungs- und Waffenschmuggel aus Deutschland in Krisenländer wie den Iran hat nach Angaben des Zollkriminalamtes im vergangenen Jahr zugenommen. Wie der “Focus” berichtet, führen die Fahnder 136 Ermittlungsverfahren wegen Verstößen gegen das Kriegswaffenkontroll- und das Außenwirtschaftsgesetz. Das seien 35 mehr als noch im Jahr zuvor.
Der Präsident des Zollkriminalamtes, Norbert Drude, zeigte sich besonders besorgt “über die aggressiven Beschaffungsbemühungen des Iran”. Drei Viertel der Fälle beträfen das Regime in Teheran.
Obama wirbt per Video bei Iranern für Verständnis
Barack Obama trifft an diesem Mittwoch in Israel ein. Kurz vor dem Besuch, bei dem es auch um das Atomprogramm des Iran gehen wird, wendet sich US-Präsident per Videobotschaft an das iranische Volk. (Quelle)
BR: Menashe Amir gibt dem Iran eine Stimme
Von Christian Wagner
Das ist Menashe Amir, 73. Vergangenen Sonntag habe ich ihn in seinem Studio in Jerusalem besucht. Er moderiert beim öffentlichen Radiosender “Kol Israel” (Stimme Israels) eine Nachrichten- und Diskussions-Sendung für Hörer im Iran. Über Kurzwelle und Internet erreicht Menashe mutmaßlich ein Millionenpublikum im Iran.Es ging diesmal um die hohen Lebenshaltungskosten im Iran, die meisten Anrufer haben sich beklagt, dass das Geld kaum noch für das Nötigste reicht. Ihren Namen sollen die Hörer nicht nennen, damit sie vom iranischen Regime keine Repressalien fürchten müssen.
Ich habe Menashe gefragt, ob er denn auch von den Iranern gefragt wird, wie das Leben in Israel so ist. Und er sagt, dass das Interesse groß ist. Er bemühe sich, alle Facetten zu schildern; von hohen Lebenshaltungskosten und den Schwierigkeiten der Mittelschicht in Israel hat er zum Beispiel auch schon berichtet.
Menashe ist in Teheran geboren und kann seine erste Heimat seit 35 Jahren nicht mehr besuchen. Israel ist seine zweite Heimat. Er hofft, dass es zu keiner militärischen Auseinandersetzung zwischen beiden Ländern kommt, wegen des Atomprogramms. Und eigentlich sollte seine Radiosendung einfach nur alltäglich sein. Stattdessen erscheint sie wie ein kleines Wunder.
Einiges hat mir Menashe während der Sendung aus dem Persischen übersetzt und erklärt, was die Menschen im Iran gerade beschäftigt. Schon allein dadurch rückt das Land so nah an Israel heran … die gegenseitigen Drohungen der Politiker wirken noch einmal umso absurder.
Quelle: BR- tagesschau
Gulf I: Iran’s Power in the Air
Michael Elleman
What are Iran’s missile assets?
Iran has the largest and most diverse inventory of long-range artillery rockets and ballistic missiles in the Middle East. It is estimated to have between 200 and 300 Scud-B and Scud–C missiles, which Iran has renamed the Shahab-1 and Shahab-2. It also owns hundreds of Zelzal rockets and Fateh-110 semi-guided rockets (see below).
These systems allow Iran to threaten targets throughout the Gulf littoral, but they are not accurate enough to be decisive militarily. Iran would need at least 100 missiles armed with 500-kg conventional warheads — and potentially many more — to destroy a specific target with a moderate level of confidence. If fired in large numbers, Iranian missiles might be able to harass or disrupt operations at large U.S. or GCC military targets, such as airfields, naval ports or fuel depots. But such attacks are unlikely to not halt activities for a significantly long time.
Iran is also unlikely to be able to improve the accuracy of its short-range missiles for at least the next five to ten years. The addition of more sophisticated inertial guidance units — or Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers — could improve accuracy by only 25 percent if properly incorporated into a Shahab or Fateh-110 missile, and then thoroughly tested.
To further enhance its accuracy, Iran would have to develop the capacity to terminate missile thrust precisely or add correction systems for the post-boost phase. But adding these mechanisms would also require flight testing likely to take four years or longer.
Iran’s longer-range missiles — the Shahab-3 and Ghadr-1 — are capable of striking targets throughout the Middle East, including Israel, as well as portions of southeastern Europe. But these missiles are highly inaccurate. And Iran’s stockpile likely totals less than 100.
This could change once Iran completes development of the solid-fuelled Sajjil-2 missile. Iranian engineers are widely believed to have the capacity to manufacture this system, although they still rely on foreign sources for fuel-production ingredients. Development may have stalled, however, since Iran has conducted only one flight test since 2009.
The utility of Iran’s ballistic missiles is likely to remain weak for years, yet they could be used effectively as a psychological weapon on population centers. The most vulnerable cities are Baghdad, Kuwait City and Dubai, since they are within range of the Zelzal rockets that Iran has in large quantity. Abu Dhabi, Manama, Doha and Saudi coastal cities are far enough to require the longer-range Shahab-1 and -2 missiles, which are in shorter supply.
What are Iran’s air force capabilities? And how do they compare to the U.S. air forces in the Gulf?
The Islamic Republic’s air forces and ground-based air defense systems offer limited protection of Iranian air space. They are no match for the combined capacity of the United States and its six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) allies. In a prolonged and intensive conflict involving the United States, Iran would have difficulty protecting its strategic assets, including its nuclear facilities, air bases, and command-and-control centers.
An integrated U.S. air defense network would probably prevent Iranian pilots from reaching many military targets within GCC territory, although limited air raids might have some success in the opening days of a conflict. (The GCC includes six sheikhdoms — Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain and Oman — that make up most of the Arabian Peninsula.)
Most of Iran’s aircraft were purchased before the 1979 Islamic Revolution and are widely considered obsolete. Even Iran’s Russian-made MiG-29 and Su-24 fighter-jets, acquired more recently, lack the modern avionics and air-to-air missiles needed to compete with the U.S. and GCC air forces.
In January, Iran unveiled a new stealth fighter-jet (see left). But the presented craft is clearly a model, or mock-up. It is quite small as well, judging from the size of the pilot seated at the controls. The Qaher F-313 appears to be an aspirational system, which is many years from reality. But it does indicate Iran’s ambitions. Iran also lacks sophisticated airborne command-and-warning assets, as well as the secure communications network needed to relay vital threat and targeting information. These deficiencies place Iranian pilots at a severe disadvantage when engaging hostile air forces armed with a complete picture of the airspace.
Perhaps Iran’s most significant shortcoming is its limited capacity to maintain airplanes and generate anything beyond one sortie per day for each fighter jet. Iran has a very limited ability to surge its air forces. It would probably be quickly overwhelmed by a combined attack by U.S. and GCC forces.
Despite these and other shortcomings, Iran’s air forces and air defenses can still inflict loses on allied air forces, albeit at a minimal rate. Tehran also claims to have mated C-701 and C-801 anti-ship cruise missiles to its F-4 aircraft. If true, these stand-off weapons would allow Iran to attack U.S. warships and commercial vessels in the Gulf with some success.
If Iran modified anti-ship missiles for land attacks, it could target key infrastructure assets located along the Gulf littoral, although the small warheads carried by these missiles would limit the damage.
What are the defense options against Iran’s missiles?
Theater missile defenses flooding into the region could blunt the political and psychological effect of Iran’s offensive-missile threat. The United States already deploys Patriot, SM-3 and other missile interceptors in the region. Kuwait and Saudi Arabia have older-generation Patriot batteries. Both countries are in the process of upgrading their defenses with more capable systems. The United Arab Emirates leads in acquisition of missile and air defense; it is currently procuring a sophisticated suite of systems, including advanced Patriot and THAAD batteries.
No defensive system is leak-proof. But the anti-missile capabilities acquired by the United States and its GCC allies have proven their efficacy during development and testing. They should help minimize public fear.
Iran might try to overwhelm these defenses by firing missiles in large salvos, as it does during annual military exercises. This tactic might allow a few warheads to reach their destinations, but interceptor missiles would probably protect the most critical targets. An integrated missile defense architecture, if implemented across the GCC in a coherent way, would further reduce vulnerability to salvo tactics.
Iran has claimed it can arm drones with missiles. Is this a significant advancement?
Iran is developing a wide-range of unmanned aerial vehicles. Most of the systems seen so far are slow, have limited maneuverability, and carry small payloads, so are used primarily as reconnaissance and intelligence-gathering platforms.
One notable exception is the Karrar, also known as the “ambassador of death.” The Karrar is based on target-drone technology, which was originally used for training air-defense crews. Nonetheless, it carries 500-kg gravity bombs and presents yet another means of delivery that American and GCC forces must track and, if necessary, defeat.
The larger concern, however, is Iran’s large arsenal of anti-ship cruise missiles acquired from China. These weapons pose a significant threat to Gulf shipping as well as navies operating near the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian use of anti-ship missiles would significantly escalate any conflict, so Tehran would probably use them only if the regime felt threatened. But their mere existence — and the threat they pose — offers Tehran an effective component for deterring attack by others.
Read Michael Elleman’s chapter on Iran’s missile program in “The Iran Primer”
Michael Elleman, senior fellow for missile defense at the International Institute for Strategic Studies and a former U.N. weapons inspector, is co-author of “Iran’s Ballistic Missile Capabilities: A Net Assessment.”
Photo Credits: Fateh-110 missiles by M-ATF, from military.ir and iranmilitaryforum.net [CC-BY-SA-3.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0)], via Wikimedia Commons and Qaher F-313 viaPresident.ir
Source: USIP
Israel’s Rita Rocks the U.N. – a important Document of peace and freedom between israel and iranian peoples
http://www.unwatch.org
Israeli singer Rita’s special surrealistic concert at the UN General Assembly, 5 March 2013, in the United Nations General Assembly Hall.
UN Ambassador Prosor has pulled off one of the most unusual diplomatic achievements ever: a full-fledged UN-sponsored Farsi-Hebrew musical event full of goodwill and sympathy
HAARETZ
By Chemi Shalev | March 6, 2013 | 9:50 AM
Inside the hall of the General Assembly at the United Nations building in New York, it seemed at times that either the messiah had arrived or the world had turned inside-out Bizarro, like in the Superman comics: Rita, one of Israel’s most popular performers, was singing in Farsi and Hebrew; Israelis were dancing in the aisles: diplomats from around the world were clapping and begging for more; Israeli Ambassador Ron Prosor was the hero of the day; Secretary General Ban Ki Moon said “shalom” and General Assembly President Vuk Jeremic, it turned out, hails from a family of Righteous Gentiles.
It was, without a doubt, a night to remember, a memory to cherish, an Israeli-made spectacle the likes of which hadn’t been seen in the General Assembly since Ambassador Herzog tore apart that Zionism is Racism resolution in 1975. Only this time, it was the other way around: “Why is this night different than all other nights?” an elated and season conscious Prosor asked me, “Because on this night, contrary to all previous nights, the United Nations is united behind Israel and resides under the wings of Rita.”
The wings that Prosor was referring to come from Haim Bialik’s song “Hachnisini Tahat Knafech” — “Under Your Wing” — a popular Israeli song which was featured in Rita’s “Tunes for Peace” concert performed at UN headquarters Tuesday night. The famous platform underneath the giant olive-colored UN symbol was turned into a rock concert stage, including a smoke machine, strobe lights, and a rocking and raucous 9-piece ensemble that played Persian-Israeli music with light touches of Klezmer to boot.
The auditorium, which for most Israelis and Diaspora Jews has come to be associated with harsh anti-Israeli rhetoric, cold diplomatic isolation, and humiliating political defeats at the hands of the “automatic majority,” suddenly had a warm ambiance and an admiring audience comprised of Iranian expatriates, Israeli diplomats, UN employees, and representatives of 140 UN delegations who begged their Israeli colleagues for invitations to the show and to the experience.
Ban Ki Moon opened the evening with the word “shalom” and described Rita as “a cultural ambassador”. Then came Jeremic, who announced that he would soon be the first sitting President of the General Assembly to visit Israel, during which he will participate in a Yad Vashem ceremony in which members of his grandmother’s family in Belgrade would be recognized as “Righteous Among the Gentiles” for saving Jews during the Holocaust.
Then, Introducing Rita, Prosor said “I always hoped that I would one day be the opening act for Rita at a major venue in New York City. Although, I’ll admit, I never expected that it would be in the form of the Three Tenors: “Ban, Prosor, and Jeremic.”
“It is our sincere hope that this musical evening will echo from New York to the hearts and minds of people throughout Israel and Iran,” Prosor added, and then asked Rita to “rock the house”, which she did.
The popular Israeli singer gave a ten song rendition that included five songs in Farsi, four in Hebrew and one — “Time for Peace” — in English. She delighted the audience with stories of her childhood in Tehran, about her mother’s love for music, and about her own wish to spread the love far and wide between her birthplace and her homeland. Her strong voice reverberated in the hall which had never seen such a joyous bunch of Israelis, including enthusiastic Rita fans who tried to get the UN diplomats to dance with them near the stage and down the aisles, though that proved a bridge too long for the usually stiff and formal envoys.
Spiegel: Atomprogramm – Iran orderte 100.000 Magneten für Zentrifugen
DPA/ IRIB
Zentrifugen in Atomanlage in Natans (Archivbild): Brisante Order in China
Washington/Teheran – Die Veröffentlichung kommt zu einem brisanten Zeitpunkt. Gerade verhandelt Iran mit der Internationalen Atomenergiebehörde (IAEA) über eine neue Annäherung im Streit über das Atomprogramm des Landes. Nun zeigen interne Papiere: Das Regime in Teheran hat noch vor knapp einem Jahr in China 100.000 hochspezielle Magneten für den Bau von Zentrifugen bestellt.
Wie die “Washington Post” berichtet, hätten die Bauteile für die Konstruktion von bis zu 50.000 Zentrifugen gereicht. Diese sind entscheidend für die Produktion von angereichertem Uran. Bisher gehen die Beobachter davon aus, dass das Regime in Teheran nur rund 10.000 Zentrifugen zur Verfügung hat.Aus dem Bericht geht nicht hervor, ob die Teile auch tatsächlich geliefert wurden. Das Ausmaß der Order belegt jedoch, wie intensiv das Regime offenbar versucht, sein Atomprogramm voranzutreiben. “Sie positionieren sich, um schnell Fortschritte zu machen”, zitiert das Blatt einen europäischen Diplomaten, der allerdings nicht namentlich genannt wird.
Der Kauf solcher Teile ist Iran unter den derzeit geltenden internationalen Sanktionen nicht erlaubt.
Das Land betont immer wieder, die Nukleartechnik nur für zivile Zwecke und nicht etwa zur atomaren Bewaffnung einsetzen zu wollen. Am Dienstag hatte ein Sprecher der Regierung sogar ein weltweites Verbot von Kernwaffen verlangt. Die friedliche Absicht wird im Westen jedoch massiv angezweifelt. Besonders Israel fürchtet eine Atommacht im nahen Iran.
Hochrangiger iranischer Revolutionsgardist in Syrien getötet
Beirut (Reuters) – In Syrien haben Rebellen einen Kommandeur der iranischen Revolutionsgarden getötet.
Hussam Choschnewis sei auf der Straße von Damaskus nach Beirut Opfer “bewaffneter Terroristen” geworden, teilte die iranische Botschaft im Libanon am Donnerstag mit. Ein Rebellen-Kommandeur sagte, der Angriff sei nahe der syrischen Stadt Sabadani im Grenzgebiet zum Libanon erfolgt. Choschnewis leitet eine iranische Agentur, die den Wiederaufbau des Libanon nach dem Krieg zwischen Israel und der vom Iran geförderten Hisbollah-Miliz im Jahr 2006 unterstützt. Die libanesische Zeitung “Al-Safir” berichtete, Choschnewis sei in Syrien gewesen, um Pläne für den Wiederaufbau der im Bürgerkrieg stark zerstörten Wirtschaftsmetropole Aleppo zu überprüfen.
Once Upon A Time In Iran – Full Movie
The 2007 documentary by Channel 4 about the ideology behind Iranian Shiism. The role of Imam Hussein and Islam among the Iranian people, the struggle between good and evil in contemporary politics and society viewed through the historical glasses of the tragic Karbala incident. Iranian pilgrims visit the tomb of Imam Hussein that tells their own hidden stories. Channel 4 attempts to reveal the mysterious martyrdom culture of Iranians to the British public.
A steady drumbeat of leaks suggests that the US and/or Israel may attack Iran sometime over the coming months. Once Upon a Time in Iran is a road movie featuring pilgrims and presidents: a journey to the spiritual heartlands of the Iranian people and a tale of martyrdom that defines their view of aggressors and the outside world.
Analysts Contrast Bulgarian, Argentinian Commitment To Battling Iran-Backed Terror
Analysts are positively comparing the political resolve shown by Bulgarian officials – who yesterday announced that they had discovered links between Hezbollah and the July 2012 bombing of a tourist bus in Burgas, Bulgaria – with recent Argentinean moves that have been criticized for papering over Iran-backed terrorism. Buenos Aires has recently established a joint “truth commission” with Tehran that is charged with investigating the 1994 bombing of a Jewish community center in the capital city, and which has been criticized as a pretext for covering up the widely assumed Iranian orchestration of the attack. The State Department has expressed pointed “skepticism” regarding the Argentinean decision. When asked about Bulgaria in a Tuesday briefing, in contrast, State Department Spokesperson Victoria Nulandemphasized the “extremely professional investigation done by the Government of Bulgaria” and expressed hope that the “clear evidence of Hezbollah operation on European soil” would galvanize the E.U. toward formally designating the group a terrorist entity. The Burgas bombing killed a Bulgarian and five Israelis.
The visit of Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to Egypt, the first by an Iranian leader since Cairo and Tehran broke off relations in 1980, has not entirely succeeded in conveying a sense of rapprochement between the two long-time rivals. Over the course of the trip, Egyptian officials have publicly condemned Iran for interfering in the internal affairs of neighboring countries, a charge increasingly heard from Arab states. Egyptian officials have not been reticent to complicate state visits with accusations aimed at Iran and its allies. In August, Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi visited Tehran in order to participate in a summit for the Nonaligned Movement, and publicly slammed Iran there as well.
Israeli outlets from across the political spectrum are criticizing Turkey over what Israeli officials are describing asAnkara’s “brazen hypocrisy” in lashing out against Israel on a variety of issues. Analysts and pundits have expressed surprise that Turkey, a country described as having “ethnically cleansed the northern part of Cyprus and illegally settled 200,000 Turks in that territory,” would attempt to declare that Israel was a “pariah” for construction in the West Bank. Meanwhile, official Turkish criticism of Israel’s reported cross-border strikes on Syrian advanced weapons, which included insinuations that Israel should be attacked in response, sits uneasily with regular cross-border raids carried out by Turkish troops against Kurdish groups in Iraq. Turkey’s status as the world’s leader in imprisoning journalists has also been pointed to as in tension with Ankara’s diplomatic posture.
Spiegel: Ahmadinedschad bei Mursi – Die Scheinehe
Von Raniah Salloum
DPA
Politiker Ahmadinedschad, Mursi (in Kairo): Küsschen links, Küsschen rechts
Kairo – So herzlich wurde Irans Präsident Mahmud Ahmadinedschad wohl schon lange nicht mehr empfangen. Direkt vom Flughafen in Kairo hat ihn sein ägyptischer Kollege Präsident Mohammed Mursi abgeholt – mit kräftiger Umarmung und Kuss auf die Wangen.
Es ist ein besonderer Moment: Seit 1979 war kein iranischer Präsident mehr zu Besuch in Ägypten. In Teheran übernahmen US-kritische Religiöse das Sagen. Ägypten dagegen schloss Frieden mit Israel und pflegte ein enges Bündnis mit den USA. Kairo und Teheran stellten ihre diplomatischen Beziehungen ein. Nun soll alles anders werden, der Beginn einer neuen großen Freundschaft – so soll es zumindest aussehen.”Die iranische Regierung versucht, wo sie nur kann, sich mit den Ägyptern gut zu stellen”, sagt Mehrzad Boroujerdi, Iran-Experte und Leiter des Nahost-Programms an der amerikanischen Universität von Syracuse. Teheran versuche, einen Keil zwischen Kairo und Washington zu treiben.
Iran macht Kairo seit den Massenprotesten und dem Sturz von Husni Mubarak 2011 Avancen. Teheran bejubelte die ägyptische Revolution als Aufstand der Religiösen und sah Parallelen zur eigenen Geschichte. Mit Mursi steht nun ein Mann an der Spitze Ägyptens, der Teheran gefallen dürfte: ein Islamist, der in der Vergangenheit “Zionisten” als “Blutsauger” bezeichnete und sich vom Westen nichts gefallen lassen will.
Mursi und Ahmadinedschad stecken in Schwierigkeiten
Und Ägyptens Präsidenten wiederum kommt ein Flirt mit Teheran gerade recht. “Mursi will sich in der Außenpolitik von seinem Vorgänger Mubarak klar abheben”, sagt Nahost-Experte Adel Abdel Ghafar, der als Gastforscher derzeit an der Amerikanischen Universität von Kairo arbeitet. Mubaraks regelmäßiges Einknicken vor Israel und den USA kam bei der eigenen Bevölkerung nicht gut an. “Mursi will zeigen, dass seine Außenpolitik nicht von den USA diktiert wird”, sagt Abdel Ghafar.
Welt: “Sie benehmen sich wie ein nuklearer Geisterfahrer”
Auf der Münchner Sicherheitskonferenz staucht CDU-Außenpolitiker Polenz Irans Außenminister Salehi geradezu zusammen. Der Vorfall zeigt: Auch deutsche Außenpolitiker verlieren die Geduld mit dem Iran.Von Clemens Wergin
Foto: pa/dpaWies den Iranischen Außenminister Ali Akhbar Salehi (r.) bei der Sicherheitskonferenz in München scharf zurecht: CDU-Außenpolitiker Ruprecht Polenz (l.)
Nach zehn Jahren Verhandlungen mit dem Iran, nach immer neuen Ausflüchten und Zeitschinden scheint nun auch den Deutschen der Geduldsfaden mit Teheran zu reißen. Auf der Münchner Sicherheitskonferenz kam es so zu einer harten Auseinandersetzung zwischen Irans Außenminister Ali Akhbar Salehi und dem Vorsitzenden des Auswärtigen Ausschusses im Bundestag, Ruprecht Polenz (CDU) in dessen Folge Polenz den Iraner mehrfach deutlich zurechtwies.
“Sie benehmen sich wie ein nuklearer Geisterfahrer auf der Autobahn und tun so, als ob alle anderen falsch liegen und nur Sie richtig”, sagte er. Auch das iranische Respekt-Gerede kann Polenz offenbar nicht mehr ertragen: “Es passt nicht zusammen, dass man selbst Respekt einfordert und andere Staaten in der Region komplett respektlos behandelt.”, sagte Polenz.
“Was man in Freitagspredigten über die USA und Israel sagt, ist unsäglich. Was man am Jerusalemtag über Israel sagt, ist unsäglich”, meinte Polenz und bekam dafür Szenenapplaus aus dem Publikum. Es komme jetzt darauf an, dass der Iran die Chance, die ihm die USA biete, auch ergreife. Der Iran stehe in der Beweispflicht gegenüber der internationalen Gemeinschaft, dass sein Atomprogramm friedlich sei und nicht umgekehrt.
Märkische Oderzeitung: Kommentar – Moralisch verwerflich
(MOZ) Das Engagement der Studenten, die an der Viadrina eine Ausstellung über antike persische Kultur zeigen, ist an sich lobenswert. Dass die Schau aber ausgerechnet von einem ranghohen Vertreter des Landes eröffnet wurde, zeugt von Taktlosigkeit. Die Universität hofiert damit ein Regime, das Israel offen mit der Vernichtung droht, das die eigene Bevölkerung unterdrückt und Kritiker foltern oder gar hinrichten lässt, um sie mundtot zu machen. Ali Reza Sheikh Attar, Botschafter in Deutschland, hat sich bisher nicht als Experte für antike persische Baukunst entpuppt.
Please stop the war – Please support and share!
Please stop the war
Please stop the rockets.
Please don’t enter Gaza.
It will lead only to more death.
On both side people are going to die. We are going to loose friends, family, children.
We are going to get trapped in another bloody circle and at the end it will serve no one.
We are going to get trapped in another bloody circle and at the end it will serve no one.
We can stop now.
Stop the rockets.
Stop the marching orders.
Just stop.
Talk before it s too late.
This is The only solution to this madness.
Even in this difficult moment, even after all the rockets, the bombing, the dead, it is not to late.
As an Israeli, my heart goes to my people in the south of Israel, to the mothers and children of Ashdod, Ashkelon, to the families who lost their loved one, to the people who have been living in fear for years.
As a human being my heart goes also to the mothers and children of Gaza, to the families who lost their loved one, to the people living in fear for years.
More bombs on both side won t change a thing. They will just prove right the extremists and take all of us down.
Forscher entdecken neue Flame-Variante – Einsatz u.a. im Iran
miniFlame aka SPE: “Elvis and his friends”
- Introduction
- Executive summary
- The history of SPE discovery
- Connections between Flame and SPE
- Connections between Gauss and SPE
- SPE timeline
- SPE workflow
- SPE versions info
- Infection statistics (KSN data)
- Sinkhole statistics
- Icsvnt32.ocx (main module)
- Export “RegisterService”
- Icsvntu32.ocx (the USB infector)
- DllMain
- Data collection routine
- Disinfection routine
- Conclusions
- References
Introduction
While analyzing the Flame malware [1] that we detected in May 2012, Kaspersky Lab experts identified some distinguishing features of Flame’s modules. Based on those features, we discovered that in 2009, the first variant of the Stuxnet worm included [4] a module that was created based on the Flame platform. This indicates that there was some form of collaboration between the groups that developed the Flame and Tilded [5] (Stuxnet/Duqu) platforms.
Based on the results of a detailed analysis of Flame, we continued to actively search for new, unknown components. A more in-depth analysis conducted in June 2012 resulted in the discovery of a new, previously unknown malware which we named Gauss [2]. Gauss uses a modular structure resembling that of Flame, a similar code base and system for communicating with C&C servers, as well as numerous other similarities to Flame.
We also published our analysis of the Flame command-and-Control (C&C) servers based on external observations and publicly available information. That helped our understanding of where the C&C servers were located and how they were registered. In September 2012 we are released new information that was collected during forensic analysis of the Flame C&C servers. This investigation was done in partnership with Symantec, ITU-IMPACT and CERT-Bund/BSI. Lies den Rest dieses Artikels
Part I: How Would Iran Fight Back?
Alireza Nader
Iran’s response to Israeli or U.S. air strikes is likely to feature unconventional tactics that would not necessarily lead to battlefield successes, such as defeat of the U.S. Fifth Fleet. But its strategy could theoretically achieve an overall political and psychological victory.
The Islamic Republic’s reaction would incorporate lessons learned from the eight-year Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s and the 34-day war between Israel and Hezbollah in 2006—two of the defining conflicts of the late 20th century. The Gulf War was the longest and deadliest modern Middle East conflict. And Hezbollah, with aid and arms from Iran, fought the longest modern war with Israel. Iran would almost certainly also factor in past U.S. military operations in the region.
Despite their boasting, Iranian leaders are well aware that they cannot defeat the U.S. military in a face-to-face conflict. But as Hezbollah’s 2006 war with Israel demonstrated, battlefield losses (or draws) can be turned into psychological victories. The Islamic Republic has devoted substantial information and media resources to fight a psychological war (jang e ravani). Hezbollah was able to withstand the Israeli military and shoot missiles into Israeli cities throughout the conflict – and thus convince many Arabs that it had won.
Iran could again try to claim a victory simply by withstanding an assault and retaining much of its nuclear know-how and technology, even if it sustained significant losses. But Israel and the United States have also learned from the 2006 Hezbollah war. Regardless, any war with Iran could be long, costly and ultimately unsuccessful in eliminating Iran’s nuclear drive.
Again facing a superior enemy, Iran would likely rely on a largely defensive and flexible military doctrine known as a mosaic defense (defa e mozaik). Iran has decentralized its military command and control as part of its doctrine of mosaic defense. Its military officials have noted past U.S. operations that targeted command-and-control centers, including wars against Iraq in 1990-91 and 2003, and have actually divided their command into 32 units, one for each of Iran’s provinces.
The Iranian air force, made up of aging U.S. and Russian platforms, is no match for either the United States or Israel. And Tehran lacks sophisticated air defenses, despite attempts to purchase them from Russia or develop its own.
Given its limitations, Iran has emphasized passive defense (defa e gheir amali). It has buried and hardened key nuclear facilities. Most of Iran’s missiles can be placed on mobile launchers, making them more elusive for Israeli or U.S. fighters. Iran has also built underground silos to make its missiles less vulnerable to airstrikes. The silos could also house nuclear weapons.
After absorbing initial air strikes through passive defense, Iran could then retaliate through conventional missile attacks and asymmetric tactics, from dropping mines in the Persian Gulf to using proxies to attack Israeli or American targets. Iran could use its growing asymmetric naval capabilities to cause economic havoc and increase the pressure on all parties dependent on the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran’s most powerful weapons may be the hundreds of missiles that can reach Israel and U.S. bases in the Persian Gulf or Afghanistan. The goal would be a psychological victory. Volleys of missiles shot at U.S. allies, such as Qatar, could seek to punish Arab regimes that host U.S. warplanes or allow overfly rights.
Tehran’s military doctrine is defined largely by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), rather than by the Artesh, the often neglected regular military. The Guards would seek to avoid a protracted conflict that could damage the Iranian economy and public morale. The Iran-Iraq War, called the Holy Defense (defa e moghadas), produced hundreds of thousands of casualties and a deep wound in the national psyche. Millions of Iranians were willing to fight for the regime in the revolution’s early days, but many may not view a new conflict as a holy defense of the Islamic Republic.
Alireza Nader, coauthor of Israel and Iran: A Dangerous Rivalry (RAND, 2011), is a senior policy analyst at the nonprofit, nonpartisan RAND Corporation.
Online news media are welcome to republish original blog postings from this website in full, with a citation and link back to The Iran Primer website (www.iranprimer.com) as the original source. Any edits must be authorized by the author. Permission to reprint excerpts from The Iran Primer book should be directed to permissions@usip.org
Part I: Israelis Squabble Over Iran
Garrett Nada
In August 2012, Israeli officials appeared increasingly divided over the need for imminent military action against Iran because of its controversial nuclear program. Israeli decision-makers and military elites now fall into three broad camps.
One group surrounding Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has started calling for unilateral action against Iran if the United States hesitates. A second camp, personified by President Shimon Peres, is advising Israel to wait for American support. A third camp, composed of generals who fought in earlier Israeli wars, is urging caution and even questioning the government’s timetable.
In the first camp, Netanyahu charged on Aug. 12 that the Islamic Republic’s nuclear potential “dwarfed” all other threats faced by Israel. And Michael Oren, ambassador to the United States, said on Aug. 16 that talks between Iran and the world’s six major powers had failed to produce a diplomatic deal. “We’ve come to a very critical juncture where important decisions do have to be made,” he said. Lies den Rest dieses Artikels
ARD: Mit Liebe gegen den Militärschlag
Kaum ein Thema beschäftigt Israel wie die Frage, ob das Militär die iranischen Atomanlagen angreifen soll. Doch während das Säbelrasseln von Politikern und Militärs lauter wird, formiert sich auch Widerstand gegen einen Krieg. “Israel liebt Iran” heißt eine Initiative, die immer größere Aufmerksamkeit gewinnt.
Von Markus Rosch, ARD-Studio Tel Aviv
- Initiative “Israel liebt Iran” will mit Liebesbotschaften den Krieg verhindern
nachtmagazin 00:40 Uhr, 24.08.2012 [Markus Rosch, ARD Tel Aviv] 
Download der Videodatei
Israel geht von Vier-Wochen-Krieg gegen Iran aus
Israel konkretisiert seine Überlegungen für einen möglichen Militäranschlag gegen den Iran. Unumstritten sind die Pläne jedoch nicht. Sowohl das Militär als auch das Sicherheitskabinett sehen einen Krieg kritisch.
Jerusalem: Die israelische Regierung geht davon aus, dass ein Angriff auf die iranischen Atomanlagen in einen einmonatigen Konflikt münden würde. „Die Analysen deuten auf einen Krieg an mehreren Fronten hin, der 30 Tage dauern würde”, sagte Zivilschutz-Minister Matan Vilani der Zeitung “Maariv” (Mittwochausgabe). Er bestätigte die Einschätzung von Verteidigungsminister Ehud Barak, dass etwa 500 Israelis sterben dürften, wenn jeden Tag Hunderte Raketen auf die Städte des Landes niedergingen. „Es gibt keinen Anlass zur Hysterie”, sagte Vilani. Der Zivilschutz sei so gut vorbereitet wie nie zuvor.
Ministerpräsident Benjamin Netanjahu und Barak befürworten einem Zeitungsbericht vom Freitag zufolge einen Schlag gegen den Iran noch vor der US-Präsidentenwahl im November. Allerdings fehle beiden Politikern dazu die entscheidende Unterstützung sowohl im Militär als auch im Sicherheitskabinett.
Israel droht mit 30-Tage-Krieg
JERUSALEM – Laut israelischen Medienberichten können sich Ministerpräsident Netanjahu und Verteidigungsminister Barak derzeit einen Schlag gegen den Iran vorstellen, sogar noch vor der US-Präsidentenwahl im November. Mehr Einsatz im Iran-Konflikt erwartet Israel derweil auch von den USA.
Während der Botschafter seine Botschaft an die Obama-Regierung noch ein wenig diplomatisch verbrämte, wurde in Jerusalem der scheidende Zivilschutzminister Matan Vilnai sehr viel deutlicher. Die Regierung rechne damit, dass ein israelischer Angriff auf die iranischen Atomanlagen einen rund 30 Tage langen Krieg auslösen dürfte, in dem in Israel etwa 500 Menschen durch iranische Raketentreffer ums Leben kommen würden, sagte er der Zeitung Maariv. Die Streitkräfte seien darauf vorbereitet, an mehreren Fronten Krieg zu führen.
US-Blogger veröffentlicht Israels geheime Angriffspläne
National Intelligence Leaks and the Hasbarafia
by RICHARD SILVERSTEIN
UPDATE: My source has permitted me to publish the entire original Hebrew document, which you read here. The English translation is in yesterday’s post:
When one publishes an important leaked Israeli government document as I have done, one has to expect a counter-attack from the hasbarafia. And it has come. I’m going to share a few words on the background of the document and address some of the scurrilous charges raised about this matter. Then I’m not going to address it again nor publish any further comments on it.
About a week ago, I received the document from a known and trusted source who is, as I’ve often said here, a former Israeli government minister. It was in turn leaked to him by an IDF officer. Lies den Rest dieses Artikels
Israel vs Iran: An Israeli Media Report
Source: The Real News Network (TRNN)
Israeli media spike coverage of potential attack on Iran “in the coming 12 weeks”
Related Story: The Porter Report: Israel, the Bulgaria Bombings and Iran
Watch full multipart The Real News in the Middle East
THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF IRAN AND THE STRUGGLE FOR SYRIA
Recent developments in Syria have prompted a predictable escalation in Western/expatriate Iranian commentary that the Assad government’s fall—widely treated as inevitable—will severely damage the Islamic Republic’s regional position. One piece of this sort which caught our eye was authored by Farideh Farhi, see here. Farhi’s article, couched as a critique of Tehran’s Syria policy, opens with the observation that,
“by providing full-fledged public support to Bashar al-Assad’s regime, Iran’s leaders have made a critical policy move. They could have made a different choice…a more balanced and proactive approach to Syria that did not place all of Iran’s eggs in Assad’s basket from the beginning of the unrest.” Lies den Rest dieses Artikels
A Persian Gulf ‘Hotline’ Proposed
By Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity
MEMORANDUM FOR: The President
FROM: Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity
SUBJECT: Avoiding Spiraling Violence in the Persian Gulf
We write respectfully to call your attention to the clear and present danger of escalation in the Persian Gulf and to suggest ways to lessen that likelihood. There needs to be a reliable way for our Navy to communicate at a sufficiently high level with Iranian naval counterparts. Otherwise, incidents occasioned by accident or provocation can readily escalate in ways neither side intends.
This is not a new problem; others (notably former Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Adm. Mike Mullen) have called attention to it in the past. We do so again because of the sharply increased tensions flowing from terrorist attacks like the one on July 18 in Bulgaria in which five Israeli tourists were killed.
It is not yet known who the suicide bomber was. Yet Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu immediately blamed Iran and Hezbollah for the attack – a claim that has not been substantiated – and threatened retaliation. Inside Iran, terrorist attacks have claimed the lives of five Iranian scientists over the past five years, with the Iranians blaming Israel. Lies den Rest dieses Artikels
