Eye on Iran: Amnesty International: Iran Publicly Executed 4 times as Many People in a Year of Crackdown

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AP: „Iran put to death more than twice as many people in 2011 as it did the year before, Amnesty International said Monday in a new report. The rights group said that the rate of executions in public increased even more dramatically, in an apparent bid to suppress political dissent and promote a climate of fear among those who might defy harsh Iranian law. ‚Casting a shadow over all those who fall foul of Iran’s unjust justice system is the mounting toll of people sentenced to death and executed,‘ said the 70-page report, released in the run-up to Iran’s parliamentary elections on March 2. ‚There were around four times as many public executions in 2011 than in 2010, and hundreds of people are believed to have been sentenced to death in the past year,‘ it said. In Iran, prisoners are usually executed by hanging. The report said the heightened pace of executions ‚may be a strategy to spread fear among the population and to deter protests. As the repression of dissenters widens, the risk of further death sentences and executions cannot be excluded.'“ http://t.uani.com/xeLAzT

What does Iran want? A short analysis of the February 2012 IAEA report

By Bruno Tertrais

Since the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) published its last report on 8 November 2011, detailing the military dimensions of the Iranian nuclear program, the parameters of the Iranian crisis have significantly changed. The United States and Europe have adopted and are progressively implementing unprecedented financial and oil sanctions against Iran. Tehran acknowledges that sanctions are hurting its economy but denies that the nuclear program is being negatively impacted. For its part, Tehran has embarked on a new campaign of terrorism against Israeli interests in Asia, further intensifying the debate over a possible Israeli strike against Iran.

The latest IAEA report, dated 24 February, is a mix of both good and bad news.

The good news is that after more than a decade of work, Iran is still operating old-technology, IR-1 centrifuges, and has not been able to switch to experimental, next generation machines. [1] Although the number of IR-1 centrifuges in operation continues to increase, the fact that there has been no noticeable upgrade in technology implies that sanctions, which target (among other items) the material and spare parts needed to transition to next generation machines, are working. Absent the sanctions, Iran would almost certainly have a rapid “break out” capability.

The bad news is twofold.

In the past four months, Iran has nearly tripled its production of 20% enriched uranium. Iran’s official justification is that the increase is necessary to meet the demands of fueling the Tehran Research Reactor. However, as Iran has already produced enough fuel for the next twenty years, this explanation is, at best, dubious.  This inconsistency is compounded by the fact that Iran’s rationale for the new, underground Fordow enrichment facility has changed twice in the past three years.

Additionally, Iran refuses to provide information regarding its weaponization activities. After the November 2011 report, two IAEA missions were sent to Tehran in January and February to obtain information regarding what the Agency calls the “possible military dimensions” of Iran’s nuclear program. Unfortunately, these missions ended in failure. In particular, the IAEA delegates were refused access to Parchin, a key military facility at which it is believed significant weaponization-related activities take place. (According to David Sanger and William Broad of The New York Times, British and Israeli intelligence believe that Tehran may already have made the decision to build the bomb.) [2]

At the same time, just days before the November report was issued, Tehran replied positively to a letter sent months earlier by the P5+1 (the five permanent members of the Security Council plus Germany). The letter was particularly noteworthy as it did not contain Tehran’s usual preconditions and vague demands for the restarting of talks.  This could be an indication that, as a result of the sanctions, Iran is genuinely interested in negotiations.

So what does Iran want?

There are at least two possibilities:

Iran may be deliberately trying to divide and confuse the international community by making an apparent diplomatic concession while it simultaneously escalates the violence abroad and accelerates its production of enriched uranium.  Some might be tempted to view Tehran’s approach as mimicking that of the P5+1, but this would be incorrect. The P5+1 have not engaged in the deliberate killing of Iranians and, though the assassinations of Iranian scientists are widely attributed to Israel, there are other credible hypotheses.

It is also possible that Iran’s leadership is deeply divided over the appropriate course of action and these divisions may be amplified by the sanctions and the upcoming elections on March 2. The faction backing Ahmadinejad may be pressing for a resumption of negotiations, fearing that further sanctions – or a possible military action against the country – could destabilize the regime. The Quds force , on the other hand, may have decided on its own or with the approval of the Supreme Leader, to target Israeli interests.

While the answer is important for diplomatic purposes, it does not alter the fact that Iran is gradually moving closer to a nuclear capability. No other currently non-nuclear member of the Non-Proliferation Treaty has invested as much in a nuclear military option.

In sum, there is probably still time for a non-violent resolution to Iran’s nuclear ambitions, but the time is growing shorter by the minute.  

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References

[1] For details see David Albright et al., ISIS Analysis of IAEA Iran Safeguards Report, Institute for Science and International Security, 24 February 2012.

[2] David E. Sanger & William J. Broad, « Iran’s output of nuclear fuel tripled », New York Times, 25-26 February 2012.

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Dr. Bruno Tertrais 
Dr. Bruno Tertrais is a Senior Research Fellow at the FONDATION POUR LA RECHERCHE STRATEGIQUE (FRS). He formerly was Special Assistant to the Director of Strategic Affairs at the French Ministry of Defense. Dr. Tertrais graduated from the Institut d’Etudes Politiques (IEP) de Paris. He also holds a Master’s degree in Public law and a DEA in Comparative Politics from the University of Paris, as well as a Doctorate in Political Science from the IEP Paris. His fields of expertise include international relations, strategic and military affairs, nuclear issues (proliferation, deterrence, disarmament), US strategy and transatlantic relations. Dr. Tertrais has published several books and studies on these questions.

 

Contact:

+33-1-4313-7767 +33-6-7291-7166 (mob) b.tertrais@frstrategie.org

AI: IRAN: ‘WE ARE ORDERED TO CRUSH YOU’: EXPANDING REPRESSION OF DISSENT IN IRAN

Iran: ‘We are ordered to crush you’: Expanding repression of dissent in Iran

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Index Number: MDE 13/002/2012
Date Published: 28 February 2012
Categories: Iran

The net of repression is widening in Iran. The authorities are arresting filmmakers, bloggers, human rights defenders, women’s rights activists, lawyers, students, journalists, political activists, religious and ethnic minorities – simply for speaking out against the government or expressing views with which the authorities do not agree. This report shows the lengths to which the Iranian authorities are prepared to go to isolate people in Iran from the rest of the world, and to try to hide information on human rights violations.

Eye on Iran: U.N. Sees Spike in Iran’s Uranium Production

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WashPost: „Iran dramatically boosted its production of a purer form of nuclear fuel in recent months, with much of the increased output coming from a newly opened plant built inside a mountain bunker, U.N. officials said Friday, further exacerbating worries about Iran’s march toward nuclear-weapons capability. The finding, in a report by the International Atomic Energy Agency, showed a nearly 50 percent jump since the fall in Iran’s stockpile of a kind of highly enriched uranium that is closer to weapons-grade than the type normally used in nuclear power plants. More than a third of the increased output came from a formerly secret installation called Fordow, which began enriching uranium last month from inside a heavily fortified bunker carved into a mountain in northwestern Iran, the IAEA inspectors found. Iran already has enough enriched uranium to build four nuclear weapons, if it decides in the future to do so. The shift to underground bunkers and a larger stockpile of the highly enriched uranium, however, could shorten the amount of time needed for Iran to develop a weapon, U.S. officials and nuclear experts say.“http://t.uani.com/w0JaNO 

Activist Hossein Jafar Ali Jasbi Is the Latest on Billström’s Delivery List to the Islamic Butchers in Evin; Deportation Date of 6 March 2012 – TAKE ACTION!

Hossein Jafar Ali Jasbi was born on 22 September 1972 to a family is among the tens of thousands of families that have suffered in the hands of the „men of God“ and their gallows in Evin and other slaughterhouses. By the time he was 10 years old, Hossein had lost his beloved older sister Mehri, age 27, and a brother Reza, age 25; they were among those tens of thousands executed in the 1980s.

Hossein’s father, who wasn’t even politically active, was put behind bars like the hundreds of mothers, fathers, and relatives who have been arrested, jailed tortured, forced to confess to activities that they had nothing to do with, and then even put on „trial“ in Islamic „courts“ and sentenced to years-long imprisonment or – as in so many cases – even executed. Hosein’s father not only lost 2 children to the gallows of the keeper of Evin, but spent many years in that hell too. He was released only in 1989.

Roundup of Today’s International News 27/02/12

IAEA REPORT

Tehran Is Ramping Up Nuclear-Fuel Output
Over the past three months, Iran has more than tripled its monthly output of uranium that has been enriched to a fissile concentration of 20% at Natanz and Fordow, according to the IAEA. Such nuclear fuel, compared with the 3.5% used in most nuclear-power reactors, brings Iran dangerously close to the weapons-grade level needed to make atomic weapons, according to nuclear experts.

Implementation of the NPT Safeguards Agreement and relevant provisions of Security Council resolutions in the Islamic Republic of Iran
Iran is not providing the necessary cooperation, including by not implementing its Additional Protocol, the Agency is unable to provide credible assurance about the absence of undeclared nuclear material and activities in Iran, and therefore to conclude that all nuclear material in Iran is in peaceful activities.

‚Major differences‘ with Iran on nuclear drive: IAEA
The UN atomic agency bemoaned on Friday „major differences“ with Iran after two fruitless visits probing suspected nuclear weapons work, adding that Tehran had substantially boosted uranium enrichment.

Iran Video and Pictures: „A Separation“ Wins Oscar for Best Foreign-Language Film

On Sunday night, Ashgar Farhadi’s A Separation won the Oscar for Best Foreign-Lanugage Film. Accepting the award, Farhadi delivered a short speech in English, „At this time many Iranians around the world are watching us, and I imagine them to be very happy….At a time when talk of war, aggression, and intimidation is exchanged between politicians, the name of their country Iran is spoken here through her glorious culture“.

In Iran, even Fars, the outlet linked to the Revolutionary Guards, is joining in the celebrations, noting Farhadi’s dedication of the award to the „values shared by all cultures and civilisations“.

The Latest from Iran (27 February): Has Khamenei Met Mousavi?

Director Ashgar Farhadi holds the Oscar for his „A Separation“, winner of Best Foreign-Language Film — see separate feature (Photo: Reuters)

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1123 GMT: Foreign Affairs (Syrian Front). Press TV publishes an attack article claiming that the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, based in London, and the British Government are fabricating tales about the violence in Syria:

[There is[ serious doubt about the truth behind its stories as they are weirdly in line with and helpful to London’s Syria policy, which supports the ouster of Syrian president Bashar al-Asad.It is also interesting that London claims Asad’s government is violating human rights principles in dealing with ‘protestors’ while revelations earlier this month showed the British government is training and providing arms and other support to terror squads in Syria to wage violence under the guise of demonstrators.

Iranian Lawyers Need Independence

On Eve of Bar Association’s Independence Anniversary, Legal Profession Under Assault

(26 February 2012) Today marks the 58^th anniversary of the Iranian Bar Association’s independence. In February 1954, after a tireless campaign by some prominent lawyers, Iran’s legislators passed a law recognizing the independence of the Bar. This victory was in part meant to allow lawyers to defend the rights of their clients without repercussions and state intervention. Nonetheless over the last 58 years Iranian authorities have continually infringed upon the work of lawyers and eroded the independence of their Bar Association.

Independence of lawyers and the legal profession is essential for the promotion and protection of human rights and the fair administration of justice. Independent lawyers can advocate on behalf of clients, even when the clients are part of minority groups, are poor, criticize the powerful, hold unpopular opinions, or are accused of horrid acts. By doing so, lawyers can advance the rule of law, challenge government abuse, and ensure that the even weakest among us has a voice and a fair trial. At their best, lawyers help guarantee that no one is deprived of their freedom, rights, or life without being able to first defend themselves.

Iran: Ansichten eines Landes

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