Iran: A Letter from Prison

Every day, there are thousands of Iranians coming to Christ by hearing the gospel through satellite programs, secret evangelism and even dreams. Interestingly, among those Iranians are also officials within the government itself. An underground church faces persecution, prison charges and in some cases even death when the Iranian government becomes aware of such gatherings held in their own country. This is an inspirational story that portrays the struggles, excruciating emotions and conflicts of Iranian believers that ultimately results in Christians uniting globally through prayer and fellowshipping in their sufferings.
From Hovsepian Ministries and The Voice of the Martyrs Canada

 

Inside largest Iranian Prison in Karaj – Rajaee Shahr prison زندان رجائی شهر

Rajaee Shar: a name that runs a chill down your spine… but what’s it like for those who have to spend years if not their entire lives inside.

Most of these people are sentenced to life without parole… some are on death row.

This is the true end of the line and these people have absolutely nothing to lose; and yet life goes on.

Without the bars and without the uniforms these people did not look any different from those I knew outside. I talked to one of them who had studied engineering in Canada, guilty of killing five people over a family will dispute.

To err is human but how tolerant can the society be?

Head of the prison explained that the aim of imprisonment is not simply to punish the criminals but to help them reintegrate in the society and experience a better way of life. He said 200 inmates are currently studying in Iran’s Open University in the prison and are completing their bachelor’s degrees.

There are also vocational programs so many of those who participate gain a foothold in the society. This in turn prevents many of them from committing crimes again.

Despite these efforts the number of prisoners is on the rise.

According to official estimates, Iran’s battle against drugs costs the country around $1 billion annually. And over 3700 combat forces have lost their lives in the fight against drug trafficking… now with experts pointing to drug related crimes as the reason behind the increase in the number of prisoners Iranians are paying the ever increasing price of western polices in the region.

 

Iranian Women Prisoners Detail Torture: ‚Death Was Like a Desire‘

A rare look at dissent in Iran, including the abuse of female prisons, is told in a co-production with NewsHour and the Center for Investigative Reporting.

Amnesty: Nach China vollstreckten Iran, Irak und Saudi-Arabien die meisten Todesurteile

Amnesty zieht gemischte Bilanz zur Todesstrafe: Trotz Rückschritten hält der Trend zur Abschaffung an. Auch 2012 richtete China Tausende hin / Nach China vollstreckten Iran, Irak und Saudi-Arabien die meisten Todesurteile / Lettland und US-Bundesstaat Connecticut schaffen Todesstrafe ab

BERLIN, 10. April 2013 – Rückschläge ja, aber kein Negativ-Trend bei der Todesstrafe. 2012 haben einige Länder erstmals seit Jahren wieder Menschen hingerichtet, doch weiter wendet nur eine kleine Minderheit von Staaten die Todesstrafe an. China ausgenommen wurden im vergangenen Jahr mindestens 682 Menschen (2011: 680) in 21 Ländern (2011: 21) hingerichtet und mindestens 1.722 Menschen (2012: 1.923) in 58 Ländern (2011: 63) zum Tode verurteilt.

„Die Wiederaufnahme von Hinrichtungen in Botsuana, Gambia, Indien, Japan und Pakistan sind sehr bedauerliche Rückschläge. Doch insgesamt gilt: Der Trend zur Abschaffung Todesstrafe ist ungebrochen“, so Oliver Hendrich, Experte zur Todesstrafe von Amnesty International in Deutschland. „Lettland hat als weiteres Land die Todesstrafe komplett aufgegeben. Die Zahl der Hinrichtungen hat sich kaum verändert, die Zahl der Henkerstaaten ist nicht gestiegen und erfreulicherweise gab es wieder weniger Todesurteile“, so Hendrich. „Wichtig waren auch viele kleine Schritte verschiedener Staaten auf dem Weg zu einer Welt ohne Todesstrafe.“

Amnesty geht davon aus, dass in China auch 2012 Tausende Menschen – und somit mehr als im Rest der Welt zusammen – hingerichtet wurden. Außerhalb Chinas sind drei Staaten für 75 Prozent der bekanntgewordenen Hinrichtungen verantwortlich: Iran (mind. 314), Irak (mind. 129) und Saudi-Arabien (mind. 79), gefolgt von den USA (43) und Jemen (mind. 28). Amnesty schätzt allerdings, dass es in Iran etliche offiziell nicht bestätigte Exekutionen gab. Zahlen zu China veröffentlicht Amnesty seit 2009 nicht mehr, da China Angaben zur Todesstrafe geheim hält.

Fortschritte gab es dennoch in allen Regionen der Welt: In den USA schaffte Connecticut als 17. Bundesstaat die Todesstrafe ab, in Singapur blieben Hinrichtungen weiterhin ausgesetzt, in Vietnam wurde niemand hingerichtet und Ghana plant, die Todesstrafe in der neuen Verfassung abzuschaffen. Weltweit haben inzwischen 140 Staaten die Todesstrafe im Gesetz oder in der Praxis abgeschafft.

Besonders kritisch beurteilt Amnesty, dass in Staaten wie Afghanistan und Belarus Menschen aufgrund erzwungener „Geständnisse“ zum Tode verurteilt wurden. In Irak und Iran wurde solche „Geständnisse“ vor dem Prozess im Fernsehen ausgestrahlt. „Verbrechen gegen den Staat“ bestraften Gerichte u.a. in Gambia, Nordkorea und den Palästinensischen Gebieten mit dem Tode.

In einigen Ländern werden auch Ehebruch und Homosexualität (Iran), Gottesslästerung (Pakistan), schwerer Raub (Kenia), religiöse Vergehen (Iran), Wirtschaftsdelikte (China) und Drogendelikte mit dem Tode bestraft.

Iranian Documentary „Women In Shroud“: Execution by Stoning

Iran Chosen By UN For Leadership Role In Protecting Women’s Rights

„Women In Shroud,“ a documentary now showing at the One World human rights film festival in Prague, follows activists‘ struggle to end the brutal practice of execution by stoning in Iran.

Ever since Jimmy Carter opened the door for the founding of the fundamentalist Islamic, Republic of Iran, the country has oppressed its female citizens. Within months of the Shah’s ouster, the Islamo-fascists began to force women to observe Islamic dress code; many public places were sex-segregated; the legal age of marriage for girls was reduced to 13 (the Prophet was also a pedophile), and married women were barred from attending regular schools. Segregation of the sexes is brutally enforced, any woman caught by revolutionary officials in a mixed-sex situation can be subject to virginity tests.

Adultery committed by women is punished by being buried up to your chest, so you cannot move and having rocks brutally thrown at you until you are dead. Irans Penal Code prescribes execution by stoning and dictates that the stones are to be large enough to cause pain, but not so large as to kill the victim immediately.

Bullet The Execution – Todesstrafe

 

Sanktionen in der Grundsicherung – Berlin wieder führend!

Sanktionen in der Grundsicherung:
Vorsicht bei der Interpretation der Zahlen

Die Bundesagentur für Arbeit (BA) veröffentlicht heute die aktuelle Statistik zu Sanktionen in der Grundsicherung für das Jahr 2012. BA-Vorstandsmitglied Heinrich Alt warnt jedoch vor einer vorschnellen Interpretation der Zahlen: „Die absolute Zahl mag hoch erscheinen, gemessen an der Gesamtzahl der Leistungsberechtigten haben die Jobcenter nur wenige Menschen sanktioniert.“

Im Dezember 2012 mussten die Jobcenter 86.100 und im gesamten Jahr 2012 1.024.600 Sanktionen gegenüber erwerbsfähigen Leistungsberechtigten neu aussprechen. Das sind 98.900 (11 Prozent) mehr als 2011. Der Anstieg erklärt sich allein durch mehr Sanktionen aufgrund von Meldeversäumnissen. Sie haben im Vergleich zum Vorjahr um 107.500 auf 705.000 zugenommen. Das entspricht einem Anteil an allen Sanktionen von rund 70 Prozent. 13 Prozent der Sanktionen wurden wegen Ablehnung einer Beschäftigung, Ausbildung oder Bildungsmaßnahme ausgesprochen.

Im Dezember 2012 waren 148.500 und im Jahresdurchschnitt 2012 insgesamt 150.300 erwerbsfähige Leistungsberechtigte mit mindestens einer Sanktion belegt, das waren 3,4 Prozent aller erwerbsfähigen Leistungsberechtigten.

Zurückzuführen ist der Anstieg der Sanktionen auf die gute Lage auf dem Arbeitsmarkt und eine intensivere Betreuung in den Jobcentern. „Wenn wir den Menschen mehr Angebote machen können, nehmen auch die Meldeversäumnisse zu“, erklärt Heinrich Alt.

Die BA setzt mit Sanktionen auch das Prinzip „Fördern und Fordern“ um. Heinrich Alt: „Hartz IV Empfänger wünschen sich eine möglichst dauerhafte und ordentlich bezahlte Beschäftigung. Die geringe Sanktionsquote zeigt, dass die Spielregeln von der deutlichen Mehrheit der Kunden akzeptiert werden und die Jobcenter verantwortungsbewusst mit dem Instrumentarium umgehen. Sanktionen sind immer das letzte Mittel. Wir wollen keine Drohkulisse aufbauen, sondern über Vertrauen und Argumentation unsere Kunden erreichen.“ Alt weiter: „Vergessen wir nicht, dass die Grundsicherung von Steuerzahlern finanziert wird, also auch von der Kassiererin, dem Dachdecker oder der Altenpflegerin. Der Gesetzgeber muss Leitplanken definieren um das Sozialsystem so zu gestalten, dass es von der Allgemeinheit als gerecht empfunden wird.“

Die aktuelle Statistik zur Zahl der Sanktionen in der Grundsicherung finden Sie unter http://statistik.arbeitsagentur.de/Navigation/Statistik/Statistik-nach-Themen/Grundsicherung-fuer-Arbeitsuchende-SGBII/Sanktionen/Sanktionen-Nav.html

 

Quelle: BA

Spiegel: Amnesty-Bericht – Staaten nutzen Hinrichtungen als Machtmittel

Tausende Menschen sind im vergangenen Jahr weltweit hingerichtet worden, das geht aus dem Jahresbericht von Amnesty International hervor. Zwar geht die Zahl der Länder mit Todesstrafe zurück, doch eine kleine Gruppe setzt bewusst auf Exekutionen – häufig zu politischen Zwecken.

REUTERS

Iran 2007: Majid Kavousifar und sein Neffe wurden öffentlich in Teheran gehängt

„Es gib verstörende Beispiele, dass Hinrichtungen für politische Zwecke eingesetzt werden“, schreibt die MenschenrechtsorganisationAmnesty International (AI) in ihrem am Mittwoch veröffentlichten Jahresbericht. „Einige der Exekutionen, die 2012 ausgeführt wurden, schienen populistische Maßnamen zu sein von Politikern, die zeigen wollten, dass sie hart gegen Kriminalität vorgehen oder um Kritiker zum Schweigen zu bringen.“…

Obwohl immer weniger Staaten Todesurteile vollstrecken, sinkt die Zahl der bestätigten Hinrichtungen kaum. Es ist eine Handvoll Länder, die für das Gros der Exekutionen verantwortlich ist:….

Iran: Offiziell bestätigte Teheran 314 Exekutionen im vergangenen Jahr. AI schätzt, dass die tatsächliche Zahl fast doppelt so hoch liegt.

Vollständiger Artikel

Erdbeben mit Stärke 6,1 in der Nähe des AKW Busher, Iran / Iranian Nuclear Plant Is Safe After Earthquake, TV Says

Um 16:22 Ortszeit bebte im Südiran die Erde und was mindestens 32 Todesopfer sowie über 850 Verletzte verursachte (Angaben von 20 Uhr heute Abend). Das Epizentrum lag in der Nähe der Stadt Kaki, knapp 90 km vom Atomkraftwerk Busher entfernt.

Erdbeben mit Stärke 6,1 am 9.4.2013 in der Nähe des AKW Busher

Kaki ist eine Stadt mit etwa 12.000 Einwohner und befindet sich im Kreis Dashti. Über 38 Minuten hinweg gab es sieben Erdstöße, darunter der genannte mit Stärke 6,1 und ein weiterer mit Stärke 5,4. Letzteres Beben kam 13 Minuten nach dem Hauptbeben. Laut US-Angaben hatte das stärkste Beben die Stärke 6,3.

Laut Nachrichtenagentur MEHR ist die Telefonverbindung in das Erdbebengebiet unterbrochen, so dass Informationen nur nach und nach an die Öffentlichkeit dringen. Trotzdem weiß man schon jetzt, dass einige Dörfer der Region teilweise, manche überwiegend und einige total zerstört wurden. Eines der Dörfer, die zu 100% zerstört wurden, heißt Baghan.

Der iranische Staat gab zwar bekannt, dass das Atomkraftwerk Busher nicht beschädigt sei. Dennoch flohen offensichtlich Menschen aus der unmittelbaren Nähe des AKW.

Iran’s Bushehr nuclear power plant is safe after a 6.1 earthquake struck near the facility today, state-run Press TV reported.

Employees at the plant felt the tremors, a correspondent for the news channel said. At least 30 people died and another 600 were injured when the quake hit the town of Kaki, near Bushehr, the channel said. The 6.3 magnitude event struck 55 miles southeast of Bushehr port, the U.S. Geological Survey reported on its website.

Enlarge image

The reactor building is seen at the Bushehr nuclear power plant in southern Iran, 1200 Kms south of Tehran. Photographer: Majid Asgaripour/AFP via Getty Images

The Bushehr plant can withstand a 9 magnitude earthquake, state-run Ria Novosti news service reported, citing an unidentified official in a company that designed the nuclear power plant, Iran’s first. Radiation levels at the facility are normal, state nuclear company Rosatom Corp. said, citing its staff in Iran.

While Iran isn’t member to the Convention on Nuclear Safety, which subjects nuclear power operators to peer review by other IAEA states, it does have obligations to report accidents. The country ratified the Convention on Early Notification of a Nuclear Accident in 2000 that “requires States to report the accident’s time, location, radiation releases, and other data essential for assessing the situation.”

Mahmoud Jafari, a project manager for the plant, said the quake “didn’t create any complications,” according to the official Islamic Republic News Agency.

Vollständiger Artikel

Quelle: by didarsabz/Bloomberg

An Iranian Blogger’s Hunger Strike in Question

Mehdi Khazali source: doostaranedrkhazali.blogspot.com

350 Iranian bloggers, political and civil society activists co-signed a letter last week warning that the life of publisher, physicist and blogger, Mehdi Khazali is in grave danger after he has been on hunger strike for more than 90 days.

But while some bloggers warn that Mehdi Khazali’s life is danger, there are also those who question whether he is really on hunger strike.

Khazali is the son of a leading right-wing cleric and former Counsel of Guardians member, Ayatollah Khazali. He was arrested together with several participants of a writer’s association called Saraye Ghalam.

Iranian blogger Freedomseeker [fa] explains the rumours:

… one of main reasons that people do not believe in Khazali’s hunger strike is that more than a year ago, it was announced that he had been on hunger strike for 67 days. Shortly after he was released by order of Ayatholah Ali Khamenei, the Islamic Republic’s Leader, Khazali started his weekly mountain hiking and urged people to take part in parliamentary elections. In the photos published from his mountain hiking, there was no visible sign of a long hunger strike and he appeared in good shape… His past activities with the regime made some people suspect the regime is in the process of creating fake opposition.

Not everyone shares this belief. An online petition calls for the immediate and unconditional release of Mehdi Khazali:

Mehdi Khazali renews hunger strike. Mehdi Khazali, a jailed Iranian physician and blogger, has begun his sixth round of a hunger strike in Evin Prison. Mehdi Khazali was last arrested in November of 2012 after security forces attacked a writer’s gathering. Kaleme reports that Khazali had broken his earlier strike when prison authorities promised to meet his demands. However, a lack of commitment to those promises and the persistent “illegal treatment of prisoners by the interrogators and judiciary officials” have led Khazali into another hunger strike.

Irane Azad writes[fa] that the same people who make fun of  Mehdi Khazali’s hunger strike, if he dies tomorrow, will call him martyr. These people boycotted the presidential election in 2009 but after the Green Movement [protest movement] erupted, they became supporters on the frontline.

Meanwhile, blogger 666Sabz warns[fa],”People! A person is dying in prison.”

Source: GlobalVoices

 

Part II: What Would it Take to Build a Bomb?

Interview with Colin Kahl by Garrett Nada

What steps would be necessary for Iran to build a nuclear weapon?

            President Obama has estimated that it would take Iran “over a year or so” for Iran to develop a nuclear weapon. But that device would likely be crude and too large to fit on a ballistic missile. Producing a nuclear weapon that could be launched at Israel, Europe, or the United States would take substantially longer. Iran would need to complete three key steps.

      Step 1: Produce Fissile Material

      Fissile material is the most important component of a nuclear weapon. There are two types of fissile material: weapons-grade uranium and plutonium. Tehran has worked primarily on uranium. There are three levels or enrichment to understand the controversy surrounding Iran’s program:

·90 percent enrichment: The most likely route for Iran to produce fissile material would be to enrich its growing stockpile of low-enriched uranium to 90 percent purity —or weapons-grade level. Western intelligence agencies suggest Iran has not decided to enrich uranium to 90 percent.

·3.5 percent enrichment: As of early 2013, Iran had approximately 18,000 pounds of “low-enriched uranium” enriched to the 3.5 percent level (the level used to fuel civilian nuclear power plants). This stockpile would be sufficient to produce up to seven nuclear bombs, but only if it were further enriched to weapons-grade level (above the 90 percent purity level). Experts estimate Iran would need at least four months to produce enough weapons-grade uranium for one bomb using 3.5 percent enriched uranium as the starting point.

      ·20 percent enrichment: In early 2013, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the

       U.N. watchdog group that inspects Iranian nuclear facilities, said Iran also had a stockpile of

       375 pounds of 20 percent low-enriched uranium, ostensibly to provide fuel for a medical

       research reactor. This stockpile is about two-thirds of the 551 pounds needed to produce one

       bomb’s worth of weapons-grade material if further enriched. If Iran accumulated sufficient

       quantities of 20 percent low-enriched uranium, it might be able to enrich enough

       weapons-grade uranium for a single bomb in a month or two.

            The main issue is the status of the uranium enriched to 20 percent and the two production sites—at the Fordo plant outside the northern city of Qom and the Natanz facility in central Iran. U.N. inspectors visit these sites every week or two, however, so any move to produce weapons-grade uranium in an accelerated timeframe as short as a month would be detected. Knowing this, Iran is unlikely to act.

            The speed of enrichment also depends on the centrifuges used, both their number and their quality. For a long time, Iran had used thousands of fairly slow IR-1 centrifuges to spin and then separate uranium isotopes. But since January 2013, it has started to install IR-2M centrifuges, which spin three to five times faster. In early 2013, Tehran claimed to be using about 200 IR-2Ms at the Natanz site.

           Tehran might be able to enrich enough uranium for one bomb ― from 20 percent purity to 90 percent ― in as little as two weeks if it installs large numbers of advanced IR-2M centrifuges. Iran has announced its intention to eventually install as many as 3,000.

Step 2: Develop a Warhead

           Iran would next have to build a nuclear device. It would need to build a warhead based on an “implosion” design if Iran wanted to deliver a nuclear device on a missile. It would include a core composed of weapons-grade uranium (or plutonium) and a neutron initiator surrounded by conventional high explosives designed to compress the core and set off a self-sustaining nuclear chain reaction.

           IAEA documents claim, “Iran has sufficient information to be able to design and produce a workable implosion nuclear device based upon HEU [highly enriched uranium] as the fission fuel.” The IAEA has also expressed concerns that Iran may have conducted conventional high-explosive tests at its military facility at Parchin that could be used to develop a nuclear warhead.

           There is no evidence, however, that Iran is currently working to design or construct such a warhead. Even if Iran made the decision, production of a warhead small enough, light enough, and reliable enough to mount on a ballistic missile is complicated. Iran would probably need at least a few years to accomplish this technological achievement.

Step 3: Marry the Warhead to an Effective Delivery System

           If Iran built a nuclear warhead, it would need a way to deliver it. Tehran’s medium-range Shahab-3 has a range of up to 1,200 miles, long enough to strike anywhere in the Middle East, including Israel, and possibly southeastern Europe. These missiles are highly inaccurate, but they are theoretically capable of carrying a nuclear warhead if Iran is able to design one.

           Iran’s Sajjil-2, another domestically produced medium-range ballistic missile, reportedly has a range of 1,375 miles when carrying a 1,650-pound warhead. Tehran is the only country to develop a missile with that range before a nuclear weapon. But the missile has only been tested once since 2009, which may mean it needs further fine-tuning before deployment. Iran also relies on foreign sources for a number of components for the Sajjil-2.

           Iran is probably years away from developing a missile that could hit the United States. A 2012 Department of Defense report said Iran “may be technically capable” of flight testing an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) by 2015 if it receives foreign assistance. But in December 2012, a congressional report said Iran is unlikely to develop an ICBM in this timeframe, and many analysts estimate that Tehran would need until 2020.

Is the North Korean experience relevant?

           The Clinton administration confronted a similar dilemma in 1993 on North Korea’s nuclear program. The intelligence community assessed that Pyongyang had one or two bombs’ worth of weapons-grade plutonium. But the intelligence community could not tell the president with a high degree of certainty if North Korea had actually built operational nuclear weapons.

           The mere existence of a few bombs’ worth of weapons-grade plutonium seemed to have a powerful deterrent effect on the United States. Washington could not be sure where the material was stored, or if the North Koreans were close to producing a weapon.

           The same concerns could apply to Iran if it developed the capability to produce weapons-grade uranium so quickly that it avoids detection even at declared facilities― or if it was able to enrich bomb-grade material at a secret facility. Then Iran might be able to hide the fissile material, making it more difficult for a military strike to destroy. All the other parts of the program, such as weapons design, preparing the uranium core, and fabrication and assembly of other key weapon components, could potentially be done in places dispersed across the country that are easier to conceal and more difficult to target.

           Iran may be years away from being able to place a nuclear warhead on a reliable long-range missile. But many analysts are concerned that the game is up once Iran produces enough fissile material for a bomb.

Colin H. Kahl served as the deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East from 2009 to 2011. He is currently an associate professor at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service and a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security.

Source: USIP

 

Part I: Is Iran Slowing its Nuclear Program?

Interview with Colin Kahl by Garrett Nada
Colin H. Kahl served as the deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East from 2009 to 2011. He is currently an associate professor at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Serviceand a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security. 

Iran has reportedly slowed down work on its nuclear program. What is actually known?

            The good news is that Tehran has kept its stockpile of 20 percent low-enriched uranium below the amount needed for a bomb. It may have curtailed uranium enrichment in order not to cross Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s red line. He had predicted in September 2012 that Iran would accumulate enough 20 percent low-enriched uranium for one bomb’s worth of material by the spring or summer of 2013. Netanyahu had implied that Israel would consider military action if Iran approached this point.

      Experts estimate that Iran would need about 551 pounds of 20 percent low-enriched uranium to produce a bomb. It reportedly has accumulated about 375 pounds so far, or two-thirds of the quantity needed. Iran could have had more, but it has oxidized part of the stockpile to make fuel plates for the Tehran Research Reactor. (Once oxidized, the uranium is not easily enriched to weapons-grade levels. It is technically reversible but time-consuming.)

      The bad news is that Iran has been significantly upgrading its ability to enrich uranium. It has installed about 2,000 additional IR-1 centrifuges at its enrichment facility in Natanz, bringing the total number of machines there to around 12,000, according to the U.N. nuclear watchdog in February. The installation of 200 even more advanced IR-2M centrifuges―which would be three to five times more efficient than IR-1 centrifuges―is particularly worrisome. And Iran intends to install about 3,000 of the more advanced models, which could dramatically shorten Iran’s breakout timeline.

            The Iranians may have run into some technical issue with storage or something else that requires them to oxidize part of their uranium stockpile. Another possibility is that Iran’s leaders want to avoid a major international crisis before the June 2013 presidential election. Or they could be intentionally skirting Netanyahu’s red line on the uranium stockpile to ensure Israel does not strike.

Has diplomacy with the international community played a role in Iran’s calculations?

            Tehran is likely to continue its dialogue with the world’s six major powers until its presidential election in June. But it is unlikely to make a major concession before the election for fear of signaling that the regime is weak.

            Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei ultimately decides on all nuclear issues. So the winner of the presidential election is not all that important per se. Most Iran analysts expect the next president to be handpicked by the supreme leader from the group loyal to him.

            After the election, the question will be whether Iran is willing to slow down its production of 20 percent low-enriched uranium and shift some of its stockpile abroad in exchange for some sanctions relief. That kind of deal is unlikely to solve the nuclear standoff. But it would put some time back on the clock.

            The United States, Britain, China, France, Germany and Russia, the so-called P5+1, are scheduled to meet with Iran in Kazakhstan again on April 5. During these talks, Tehran may try to weaken consensus among the world’s six major powers, who do not agree on every element of negotiating strategy. But this element of Iran’s diplomatic strategy has only had moderate success so far.

At what point would the United States need to decide whether or not to use force to stop the nuclear program?

            The Obama administration has indicated that it does not share Netanyahu’s definition of the red line for using force. Washington does not appear to consider one bomb’s worth of 20 percent low-enriched uranium alone as casus belli for a military strike. Even aggressive estimates claim Iran would need at least a month to convert further enrich this material to weapons-grade level (uranium enriched above the 90 percent level of purity). Iran would also have to do the enrichment at either Natanz or its second enrichment facility at Fordo, both of which are inspected every week or two by the U.N. nuclear watchdog. Inspectors would almost certainly catch Tehran diverting or enriching the material. Iran knows it would get caught, so the supreme leader is not likely to make such a move even with a sufficient stockpile of 20 percent low-enriched uranium.

            But President Obama and Prime Minister Netanyahu agreed in March that Iran would need at least one year to produce a nuclear device, which would begin with production of weapons-grade uranium. Tehran would then need several months to actually assemble a crude nuclear device. U.S. officials have suggested that Iran might need another two to four more years to build a nuclear device sophisticated enough to put on the tip of a ballistic missile.

Obama administration officials, from the president on down, have consistently stated they will not allow Iran to acquire a nuclear weapon. And the president has made clear that all options, including the use of force, remain on the table to ensure that Iran does not get the bomb. At the same time, Obama clearly prefers a diplomatic solution, believing there is still time to strike a deal. All eyes will be on Almaty to see if the Iranians feel the same way.

Photo Credit: President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad via President.ir

Source: USIP